or certification exams. The 8140 also implicitly assumes the continued relevance and accuracy of ... — involving Iran...

Oil Plunges 4 Percent as Trump Signals Iran Nuclear Deal Progress WTI and Brent shed geopolitical premiums after White House floats uranium enrichment compromise and Iran hints at program retreat. Oil prices dropped 4 percent in early Thursday trading after President Donald Trump said the United States was close to a nuclear deal with Iran and a senior Iranian official suggested Tehran could abandon uranium enrichment in exchange for sanctions relief. WTI crude fell 4.12 percent to $60.58 per barrel while Brent declined 3.80 percent to $63.52 in Asian and European sessions. The selloff follows months of elevated risk premiums tied to Iran's grip on the Strait of Hormuz and uncertainty over its nuclear program. Five months after American and Israeli strikes hit several Iranian nuclear facilities, Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araghchi told The Economist his government wants a deal with Washington. Negotiators are discussing a framework in which uranium enrichment up to the internationally mandated 3.67 percent purity limit would be managed on Iranian soil by a consortium of international powers, possibly including the United States. Prediction markets reflect muted confidence in rapid progress. The Iran Uranium Enrichment Agreement market priced a deal at just 8.6 percent probability, down from 10 percent a day earlier. The US Obtains Iranian Enriched Uranium market for May 31 stood at 3.6 percent, down from 5 percent the previous day. The diplomatic thaw comes as Iran maintains restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz despite a two-week ceasefire agreement with Washington. The CEO of the UAE's state-owned oil and LNG producer criticized Iran's continued control over the waterway on Thursday, saying the strait is not open to normal traffic. A Poten and Partners executive told Montel that Iran has little incentive to forge a swift peace deal while its stranglehold on the chokepoint creates leverage in global energy markets. July WTI crude posted a volatile week leading up to Thursday's drop, swinging between a high of $105.21 and a low of $95.76 through May 21 as traders aggressively repriced and then removed geopolitical risk premiums. The wide range reflects uncertainty over whether diplomatic progress will translate into concrete steps to reopen Hormuz and ease regional tensions. Market participants face competing signals about how serious either side is about compromise. Trump's public vow to recover uranium from Iran and CIA Director John Ratcliffe's warnings elsewhere in the region suggest Washington retains a muscular posture. Meanwhile, any special forces operation targeting Iran's nuclear sites would require months of rehearsal, according to a former Joint Special Operations Command operative, and teams would need to handle highly enriched uranium stored as uranium hexafluoride at facilities like Isfahan and Natanz. The United States has maintained economic sanctions on Iran since President Carter imposed them in November 1979 after radical students seized the American embassy in Tehran. Iran became the most sanctioned country in the world until Russia surpassed it following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The sanctions architecture remains in place despite the latest diplomatic overtures. Wednesday's price weakness was amplified by inventory data showing a 4 million barrel crude oil build during the week ending May 9, according to the Energy Information Administration. The American Petroleum Institute had reported a similar increase on Tuesday. Rising stockpiles undercut the risk premium just as diplomatic headlines suggested progress toward resolving the Iran standoff. The interplay between negotiations and Hormuz shipping restrictions creates conflicting price pressures. Traders must weigh the potential for sanctions relief and increased Iranian oil flows against the reality that Tehran controls a chokepoint handling roughly one-fifth of global crude trade and maintains restrictions even under ceasefire terms. The next signal to watch is whether Iran allows full commercial passage through the Strait of Hormuz or maintains its grip as leverage in nuclear talks. Until shipping normalizes, any diplomatic progress faces market skepticism about whether Tehran will sacrifice its most potent bargaining chip before securing ironclad sanctions relief.