Qatar LNG Halt Stretches Into Months, Henry Hub Shrugs

Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG complex has been largely offline since Iranian missile strikes in early March knocked out 17% of its capacity, sidelining a facility that supplies roughly one-fifth of the world's liquefied natural gas. Henry Hub on Tuesday was $3.08 per million BTU. That disconnect tells you most of what you need to know about the U.S. gas market right now. European TTF was trading at €46.26 per megawatt-hour Wednesday and Asian JKM spot LNG at $18.96 per MMBtu — both pricing in genuine supply anxiety. Henry Hub is pricing in shale. Domestic production has not flinched, and expanding LNG export infrastructure means U.S. gas stays anchored to its own fundamentals rather than global spot markets. The ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas ETF, which targets 2x daily Henry Hub exposure, trades near $13 after losing 43% year-to-date and 80% over the past year — the January cold-weather spike to $31 is the high-water mark that set up the subsequent collapse. The Ras Laffan outage sits inside a broader disruption picture in the Middle East. The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil historically flows, has been effectively shut since February. A ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran announced April 8 sent Brent down 15% initially to $92 before buyers returned. As of Tuesday, Brent was at $110.95 and WTI at $103.89 — well above the late-February pre-conflict level near $70, but down sharply from March's $120 peak. The UAE's exit from OPEC, effective May 1, adds a supply wildcard. Abu Dhabi is producing around 3.6 million barrels per day against a nameplate capacity of 4.65 million bpd, with Hormuz disruptions capping actual exports at 1.8 to 1.9 million bpd. The Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, which bypasses the Strait entirely and can carry 1.8 million bpd to the Gulf of Oman, has become a critical workaround. A full Hormuz reopening would allow the UAE to add close to 1 million bpd to markets without OPEC quota constraints — a meaningful overhang if the ceasefire holds. On the U.S. crude side, the picture is tightening faster than headline inventory levels suggest. EIA data released Wednesday showed a 7.9 million-barrel draw in the week ending May 15, pulling stocks to 445.0 million barrels — 2% below the five-year average and well ahead of the 3.4 million-barrel consensus. Part of that draw came from the SPR: a record 9.9 million-barrel withdrawal brought reserves to 374.2 million barrels, the lowest since July 2024. Even so, U.S. crude stocks are still up 26 million barrels year-to-date, the result of an inventory profile that has swung between record domestic production and sharp, export-driven drawdowns in a matter of weeks. The trade setup hinges on two timelines that remain opaque: when Ras Laffan restarts, and whether the April 8 Hormuz ceasefire survives continued regional hostilities. A Ras Laffan return would ease TTF and JKM but is unlikely to move Henry Hub, where domestic oversupply provides its own ceiling. The more consequential signal for U.S. prices is whether LNG export capacity absorbs enough domestic production to tighten the physical market — a process that works over quarters, not weeks. Watch also whether Nigeria, currently producing 1.46 million bpd against a 1.5 million bpd OPEC quota, moves toward the door behind the UAE.