UK Energy Bills Heading for 13% Jump as Qatar's LNG Outage Keeps Gas Markets Tight

UK household energy bills are set to rise 13% from July after three months of disrupted Middle East supply drove wholesale gas prices to levels that show little sign of retreating. Cornwall Insight projects Ofgem will set the July-September price cap at £1,850 for a typical dual-fuel household, up £209 from the current £1,641. Ofgem announces the official figure on May 27. The proximate cause is the Strait of Hormuz closure that followed U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28. The waterway handles roughly 20% of global oil flows and about 20% of global LNG trade, according to the EIA. Tehran's effective sealing of the strait sent UK wholesale gas prices doubling within weeks. By mid-March, Cornwall Insight warned the cap could reach £1,973. A fragile ceasefire trimmed that forecast to £1,929, then to the current £1,850 — but prices have stayed elevated more than two months on. NBP gas traded at €48.01 on May 20; TTF held at €46.26. The deeper problem is Qatar. QatarEnergy confirmed extensive damage to its Ras Laffan LNG complex following March 19 attacks, and the facility remains offline. Qatar supplies roughly a fifth of the world's LNG, and its absence has set European and Asian buyers against each other for limited spot cargoes. The IEA put the impact at 20 million barrels per day of affected Hormuz shipping, with global crude production cut by at least 10 million barrels per day — around 10% of world output. Brent crude was trading at $110.95 on May 19, up 52.6% year-to-date from around $70 before the conflict. WTI stood at $103.89. Cornwall Insight's October forecast matches the July projection at roughly £1,850, a level the firm says a return to the April cap "looks unlikely" given the physical damage to Middle East infrastructure. That matters because October is when UK heating demand resumes and the gas-fired power margin — the structural link between wholesale gas and household electricity bills — reasserts itself regardless of how much renewable capacity is online. Three VLCCs exited the Strait of Hormuz on May 19 carrying 6 million barrels of crude, the first significant movement after more than two months of delays. It suggests some transit has resumed, but it does not resolve the LNG problem. European gas storage stood at 36.6% on the same date. If Ras Laffan repairs extend into the autumn, that inventory cushion may not be enough to prevent further price pressure when demand peaks in the fourth quarter. The May 27 Ofgem announcement will confirm the July cap and reset expectations for Q3. The more important signal is the timeline for Qatar's LNG restart — that is the variable the forward curve is currently pricing, and one that neither Ofgem nor Cornwall Insight can control.