TTF jumps 7% as Europe enters injection season at lowest storage since 2018

TTF jumps 7% as Europe enters injection season at lowest storage since 2018 European gas storage sits at 31 bcm with the Strait of Hormuz still shut, and the TTF curve is pricing the disruption to run past three months. ICE Endex TTF front-month traded at €48.85 on Thursday (2026-06-04), up 7.32% on the day, as Europe's gas market confronted an injection season starting from the emptiest tanks in eight years.³ The move came with the Strait of Hormuz still closed and no clear date for cargoes to resume.¹ That matters because Europe is trying to refill 110 bcm of storage capacity from just 31 bcm, the lowest level since 2018, according to a Columbia University analysis.³ The continent has historically absorbed excess global LNG and pipeline gas from April to October.³ This year it is the buyer of last resort with the fewest options. Analysts told Montel that Europe could still reach an "adequate" 86% storage level before winter if Hormuz reopens soon.¹ But if the strait stays shut past July, the same analysts warned of price spikes.¹ The window is narrow, and the calendar is unforgiving. The forward curve is already saying as much. The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies read the TTF curve in late March (2026-03-31) as implying the market expects Hormuz to stay closed for more than three months.⁵ That is not a tail scenario priced for insurance. It is the base case embedded in where traders are willing to transact.⁵ The supply side offers little cushion. Europe lost most of its Russian pipeline gas after 2022 and now sits without Qatari LNG indefinitely, which Columbia's analysts said makes it essentially impossible to import and inject enough to rebuild stocks at a comfortable pace.³ The last time storage fell this far, in 2018, it dropped to 19 bcm and triggered the largest seven-month injection on record at 74 bcm.³ Repeating that without Russian and Qatari volumes is a far harder problem.³ Russian supply is drifting the wrong way for any European hope of relief. A Bloomberg report cited by one source put Russian gas production down 3.2% in the first half, at roughly 334.8 bcm.² LNG output fell 5.1% to about 16.5 million tonnes over the same stretch.² Moscow is sending more east, with Power of Siberia flows projected to rise over 20% this year toward the pipeline's 38 bcm annual ceiling.² None of that backfills Europe.² The legal overhang complicates the picture further. Uniper won a €13bn arbitration award against Gazprom Export, and how it pursues recovery could shape future supply given the roughly 25 bcm a year it once imported from Russia.⁴ The award is large enough that any enforcement move carries weight for whatever residual Russian-European gas relationship survives.⁴ Brussels is preparing to bend. EU policymakers are weighing a cut to the storage filling target from 90% to 80%, framed as providing market certainty and avoiding a desperate bidding war into winter.³ Lowering the mandate eases the squeeze on paper. It also concedes that the original target may be unreachable on current supply.³ The signals in the packet are not all pointing one way. The balance of directional readings leans modestly bearish, built on demand softness and the assumption that the strait eventually reopens.¹ Yet the strongest opposing call is bullish on TTF front-month, with storage named as the driver.³ Thin tanks argue for higher prices; the bearish lean assumes Hormuz clears in time. The 7.32% rise in ICE Endex TTF front-month suggests the storage anchor is winning the argument for now.³ If Hormuz cargoes resume before July, the 86% storage path stays open and the curve's three-month assumption unwinds.¹ If they do not, Europe heads into autumn injecting against a closed chokepoint, a shrinking buffer and a filling target it may have already abandoned.³ The next four weeks decide which.