South Korea's Jet Fuel Exports Hit Nine-Month High as Refiners Claw Back From the Iran-War Shock

South Korea's Jet Fuel Exports Hit Nine-Month High as Refiners Claw Back From the Iran-War Shock Seoul's kerosene shipments jumped 36% in May to a nine-month high, the clearest sign Northeast Asian refining is recovering from the Middle East supply disruption. South Korea shipped between 8.67 million and 9.46 million barrels of jet fuel in May, a nine-month high and a sharp rebound from March and April, when refiners were caught off-guard by the crisis in the Middle East, according to Kpler estimates reported by Reuters.⁵ That matters because Seoul is one of Asia's swing suppliers of aviation fuel, and its return to higher output eases a regional crunch that had pushed importers as far afield as Australia to scramble for cargoes. Kerosene shipments rose 36% from April, when exports had slumped to a one-year low.^5,2 The share data make the recovery hard to dismiss. South Korean kerosene has accounted for about 30% of Asia-Pacific jet fuel imports so far this year, up from a 23% share across full-year 2025. That is a meaningful gain in a market where most suppliers move in single-digit increments.⁵ Refiners lifted processing rates as crude arrivals recovered and a wide-open arbitrage made shipments to the U.S. West Coast pay, analysts told Reuters. The export pull is now external as much as regional.⁵ The rebound was flagged early. At the start of May, Ivan Mathews, head of APAC analysis at Vortexa, said any recovery in Northeast Asia's jet fuel exports would be led by South Korea as it raised refinery utilisation on returning crude cargoes. That call has now played out in the volumes.⁵ Context explains why the spring dip was so sharp. South Korea relies on the Middle East for roughly 70% of its crude, leaving its refiners directly exposed when the region's supply seized up. President Lee Jae Myung warned of an economic emergency in the week of 2026-05-18 and the government passed an additional $17 billion budget to cushion the shock.¹ At the depth of the disruption, the strain ran across Asian refining. Many plants were cutting runs by 10% or more, Kpler reckoned, and lower-stocked importers including India, Singapore and South Korea, sitting on 50 days of cover or less, were weighing curbs on diesel and petrol exports.³ The trigger was the Iran war. Qatar's main LNG export facility, normally about 17% of global flows, went offline after an Iranian drone strike, and the fallout rippled through fuel supply and pricing across the region.^3,4 Demand strain showed up downstream too. New Delhi noted that aviation fuel prices would have risen by more than 100%, though the government capped the increase for domestic airlines at 25%. That kind of price spike is exactly what fuller Korean export volumes should now help to relieve.¹ Refining margins still look supportive. ICE Brent crude front-month traded near $95.38, up 0.52% on the session on 2026-06-04, so feedstock is not cheap, but the West Coast arbitrage is wide enough to keep the export incentive intact.⁵ The open question is durability. Korean output hinges on sustained crude arrivals from a Middle East that only weeks ago was the source of the disruption, and the export-suspension debate would return fast if regional stocks thin again. Watch whether the arbitrage to the U.S. West Coast stays open, whether May's processing rates hold into June, and whether any fresh supply scare reverses the volumes that have just hit a nine-month high.^5,3