EDF guides French nuclear back to 350-370TWh for 2026 — a ~10TWh cut versus 2025's 373TWh print

EDF guides French nuclear back to 350-370TWh for 2026 — a ~10TWh cut versus 2025's 373TWh print EDF delivered 373TWh of French nuclear output in 2025 (up 11.3TWh, +3.1% on 2024), then told the market to expect 350-370TWh in both 2026 and 2027 and 345-375TWh in 2028. The headline is the gap: full-year 2025 came in above the top of the forward range, so the guidance encodes a step *down* of roughly 3-23TWh into next year even as France runs the Grand Carénage heavy-maintenance programme. For the French power curve, that removes the tailwind that 2025's availability provided — bearish-to-neutral on Cal-26 and Cal-27 French baseload only if demand stays soft; any cold snap into a tighter generation stack tightens spreads fast. The 373TWh was driven by good reactor availability, well-managed outages (23 of 43 ended ahead of schedule under START 2025), and high modulation, with Flamanville 3 reaching 100% power. Against that, hydro fell hard: 42.6TWh, down 8.0TWh (-15.8%), against 2024's exceptional hydraulicity. Production-after-pumping was 34.1TWh versus 42.9TWh. The hydraulicity index normalised to 96% from 126%. Pumped storage hit a record 6TWh. Net effect — France still exported a record 92.3TWh, which keeps downward pressure on neighbouring hubs (German, Italian, GB day-ahead) whenever French nuclear runs near these levels. The financials show why the output number matters to EDF's own behaviour. EBITDA dropped to €29.3bn from €36.5bn (-19%), with €6.2bn of the €7.3bn decline attributed directly to lower market prices in France and the UK — the +11.3TWh of French nuclear added only €0.4bn while the price drop took €6.2bn out. Sales fell to €113.3bn (-4%), net income Group share to €8.4bn (-26%), operational cash flow to €9.6bn. Net financial debt improved to €51.5bn from €54.3bn, NFD/EBITDA at 1.8x, and S&P upgraded EDF to BBB+ stable on 14 January 2026. EDF flagged 2026 EBITDA to "retreat slightly" and confirmed 2027 leverage targets of ≤2.5x NFD/EBITDA — but explicitly conditioned those on French nuclear output of 350-370TWh. Miss the low end and the debt math loosens. Capex is climbing into the build cycle: net investment €24.0bn versus €22.4bn, with new nuclear (Flamanville 3, Hinkley Point C, EPR2) at €5.9bn. EPR2 carries a forecast cost estimate of €72.8bn in 2020 euros. Hinkley Point C Unit 1 slipped to 2030 with a €1.8bn charge for the delay; the CfD strike was cut £3/MWh to £89.5/MWh (2012 sterling) after the Sizewell C FID, offset by a £1.6bn payment to HPC. Sizewell C reached FID and financial close. None of these add electrons before 2030, so the 350-375TWh band is the operative supply signal for the next three years. EDF also restated an ambition to "exceed an ability of nuclear generation of 400TWh per year" and is raising the power of thirteen 900MW reactors between 2027 and 2035 — a slow structural lift, not a 2026 lever. What to Watch - Q1 2026 nuclear print versus the 350-370TWh run-rate — first read on whether guidance is conservative; trades French Cal-26/Cal-27 baseload. - Hydraulicity index mean-reversion from 96% — a wet spring caps French power; a dry one stacks with maintenance. - French net-export pace versus 2025's 92.3TWh record — pressure on German and Italian day-ahead spreads. - 2026 EBITDA "slight retreat" confirmation and any move in the NFD/EBITDA path toward the ≤2.5x 2027 target. - EPR2 final investment decision and HPC Unit 1 electromechanical progress against the 2030 date.