China LNG Imports Tick Up in May but Spot Market Stays Cool

China LNG Imports Tick Up in May but Spot Market Stays Cool May import volumes rose slightly year-on-year, yet traders say Chinese spot appetite remains weak, keeping Asian prices near 19-month lows. China imported 4.9 million tonnes of liquefied natural gas last month, a slight increase on an annual basis, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday (2026-06-02), citing shipping data. The figure arrived three weeks after Asian spot prices had fallen to their lowest in nearly 19 months during the week of 2026-05-11, when new supply additions outpaced buying interest.⁴ That divergence matters. China has overtaken Japan to become the world's largest LNG market, Wood Mackenzie data show, a shift that means the country's purchasing appetite now drives JKM price formation more than any other single buyer. When the world's largest consumer leans on term contracts and holds back from spot, prices reflect it.³ The practical question is whether May's volumes represent genuine demand growth or simply contracted arrivals landing on schedule. Traders noted on Friday (2026-05-16) that spot demand from China remained soft even as JKM slid. A slight year-on-year rise in monthly imports built on long-term contracts says little about whether Chinese utilities will return to the spot window during summer peak.⁴ Coal complicates the demand read further. China's coal output climbed to a record 4.83 billion tonnes in 2025 despite a decline in coal-fired power generation, Bloomberg reported on 2026-05-19, citing official data.⁶ April production then pulled back 1% from that March record to 385.63 million tonnes, Reuters reported.⁵ A well-stocked domestic coal base limits the switching incentive and caps how urgently Chinese utilities need to pursue spot LNG cargoes. Supply is building too. US Lower 48 marketed gas production averaged 117.2 billion cubic feet per day in the first quarter of 2026, up 4% year-on-year, EIA data show. The agency forecasts a full-year increase of 3%, driven primarily by the Permian Basin, where output is expected to reach 29.2 Bcf/d, or 6% above 2025 levels. Haynesville is forecast to grow a further 6% this year and 8% in 2027.¹ That trajectory sustains feedgas availability for US LNG export terminals and keeps Atlantic basin cargo flow intact through the summer. Russia's gas exports also figure into China's supply arithmetic. Bloomberg reported in July 2025 that Russian gas production fell in the first half of that year, with an uptick in China-bound pipeline volumes failing to offset lost European market share. Pipeline gas from Russia and Central Asia remains part of China's overall gas intake; LNG imports provide the balancing volume when domestic output and piped supply run short.² The 4.9 million tonne May figure, roughly in line with year-ago volumes, implies no meaningful spot buying beyond existing contracts. Asian LNG prices dropped to their weakest since late 2024 during the week of 2026-05-11, OilPrice.com reported on 2026-05-19, as new supply hit the market against muted buying interest.⁴ Nothing in the May import data reverses that picture. What changes the calculus: a sustained draw on Chinese gas inventories heading into peak summer power burn, or an unplanned supply disruption in the Atlantic basin that forces buyers back to spot. Until then, EIA's forecast production ramp in the Permian and Haynesville regions, if it arrives on schedule, sustains the supply argument through Q3 2026. Chinese restraint in the spot market may prove the decisive factor keeping JKM below recent seasonal norms.¹