Oil & Upstream

Crude oil, OPEC+, US shale and upstream energy market news and analysis for commodity traders.

Traders sold oil on an Iran deal. The IAEA just said the risk went up.

RBOB bears are reading the gasoline build and ignoring the crude tank under it

REalloys Locks Greenland Heavy Rare Earth Offtake as Pentagon Floods the Sector With Cash

EIA Pegs US Crude at 14 Million Barrels a Day in 2027, a Mark It Has Never Hit

Equinor posts $3.10bn Q1 net income as 9% production growth meets high prices

US Crude Stockpiles Draw Fastest in Four Decades as Export Boom Empties Tanks

United States 4 Jun

Israel-Lebanon truce hangs on Hezbollah as crude keeps its war premium

Guyana's Atlantic Barrels Become the Oil War's Quiet Winner

The oil market is watching Hormuz. The signal that matters is coming from China.

Strait of Hormuz 4 Jun

The oil market is mistaking a draining buffer for a comfortable one

Crude's rebound is leaning on a war premium the tape may be mispricing

Kpler drone data points to deeper Cushing draw as Iran ceasefire whipsaws crude

Bloomberg Calls the Peak on Iran's Oil Weapon as Asia Buys Coal

Iraq Claws Output Back to 1.6m bpd as Hormuz Crisis Eases

Strait of Hormuz 3 Jun

Pertamina holds 1 mmboe/d upstream but 882 kbpd of refining keeps Indonesia long on import demand — bid for Mideast crude and Asian gasoil

Inpex front-month sell vol still wide: Ichthys lifts volumes but $67.39 realised crude caps the upside

YPF's Vaca Muerta funding case now rides on the IMF's US$20bn program, not the drill bit

Rosneft Posts 5.02 mmboe/d as OPEC+ Eases in Q4 — Urals/ESPO Realisations Stay Squeezed by Discount Regime

CNOOC Q1 output jumps 8.6% to 205mm BOE as capex accelerates 19% — bearish at the margin for Brent

Neste Q3 SAF Hits Record 251kt as Renewable Sales Margin Jumps to $480/t — But BTC Cliff and 4.3x Net Debt Frame the Risk

Phillips 66 consolidates WRB and winds down Los Angeles — West Coast crack support, mid-con barrels in-house

Marathon's Q1 refining cut: BANGL and Northwind reshape the cash engine toward midstream

Valero's California exit confirmed in the filing — West Coast gasoline cracks lose a structural seller

BP reaffirms $13-13.5bn 2026 capex as Q1 profit jumps to $3.8bn

ConocoPhillips bought back $1.1bn of stock at a rising bid in Q1 — the buyback signal, not the barrels, is what trades

Equinor pumps record 2.31 mmboe/d as NCS roars, but the cash engine now hinges on TTF, not the wellhead

ExxonMobil's Q1 quarter halves to $1.00 EPS as downstream cracks collapse — Energy Products swings to a $1.26bn loss, refining margins the clear bearish tell

TotalEnergies' 116% reserve replacement and Rio Grande Train 4 FID flag supply growth into a soft tape — bearish for 2027 TTF length, supportive of US LNG offtake

BP 1Q26: Exceptional Oil Trading and Refining Recovery Drive $3.2bn — Gas Trading Lags

LNG Canada First Cargoes and 52% Cash Payout Define Shell's 2025 — Buyback Pace Is the Tell

Brent crashes 8% as US-Iran deal talk drains the war premium

NYMEX WTI Slides Below $100 as Hormuz Reopening Hopes Undercut a Four-Week Draw

The bearish signals buried under oil's shortage panic

WTI Slides Below $99 as Trump Touts "Rapid Pace" of Iran Talks

Texas Upstream Jobs Rose in April Even as Crude's War Premium Drained Away

Brent Slides to $93 as Middle East Diplomacy Cools the War Premium

ADNOC chief warns of four-month oil recovery lag as UAE charts life outside OPEC

Oil traders are pricing a deal that may not exist

OPEC+ Decision and Gasoline Data Are the Only Two Things That Matter for Crude Right Now

Ukraine Hits Saratov Refinery Again as Deep-Strike Campaign Tests Russia's Oil Routing

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