China's coal imports post decade's biggest drop as AI demand reshapes commodity flows
China's 2025 import data shows coal and gas falling while crude rises, splitting the AI demand story along geographic lines.
China bought 490 million tons of coal in 2025, down 9.6% from the previous year's record — the steepest annual decline in a decade and the first contraction since 2022, when pandemic lockdowns were still suppressing activity, according to customs data reported by MINING.COM. Gas imports slipped for the first time in three years, down 2.8% to 128 million tons, driven by record domestic production and weaker industrial demand.4
Both numbers run against the prevailing market narrative that AI-driven data center buildout is uniformly tightening global energy and commodity demand. That story holds in some markets: crude oil purchases rose 4.4% to 578 million tons, reversing a 2024 decline, while copper ore and concentrate imports hit a record 30 million tons, up 7.9%, feeding China's smelting expansion. But the coal and gas figures suggest China's demand mix is shifting faster than headline AI enthusiasm implies.4
The AI electricity demand story has real weight. The International Energy Agency said in an April report that global electricity demand from data centers jumped 17% last year, with demand from AI-hosting facilities rising even more sharply. Data centers now account for more than 1% of global electricity use, the IEA said.5,2
In the U.S., the trajectory is steeper. Power demand from data centers could reach 9% to 17% of total U.S. electricity supply by 2030, or up to 790 terawatt-hours, compared with around 4% as of May 2026, according to the Electric Power Research Institute in a Reuters report. That projection underpins the bull case for natural gas as the bridge fuel for AI infrastructure, alongside nuclear and battery storage.3
BloombergNEF has concluded the data center expansion will keep fossil fuels in use longer than previously expected, supporting sustained gas demand in U.S. and LNG export markets. China's 2025 import figures sit awkwardly against that framing.1
China's coal collapse was driven by cheaper domestic alternatives and a rare contraction in thermal power generation, MINING.COM reported. Finished copper told a similar story: unwrought copper and products fell 6.4% to 5.3 million tons, the weakest reading this decade, even as ore purchases hit records. China is buying more raw inputs and processing them at home rather than importing finished commodities.4
The pattern has direct implications for traders positioned around AI infrastructure demand. In the U.S., the data center buildout pulls in gas, power equipment and storage directly. Energy storage company Fluence is engaged in more than 30 gigawatt-hours of data center-related projects globally, CEO Julian Nebreda said. The U.S. added a record 57.6 GWh of new battery storage capacity in 2025, bringing total deployed capacity to 166.1 GWh, per the Solar Energy Industries Association. Annual deployments are projected to reach 110 GWh by 2030, with data centers accounting for a significant share.3
China's trajectory diverges. Record domestic gas output and weakened industrial demand explain part of the import slide. China National Petroleum Corp. expects gas consumption growth to double to 5% this year, and a wave of new global export projects is likely to pressure seaborne LNG prices rather than lift them.4
Standard Chartered commodity analysts have said base metals prices are likely to take their cue from macro dynamics and shifts in risk appetite rather than pure supply-demand fundamentals. That view sits uneasily against the structural deficit narrative that has supported metals markets through the AI infrastructure build.6
Battery storage firms in the U.S. report surging interest from data centers, but lengthy grid connection queues and a supply chain heavily dependent on China are limiting their ability to scale, Reuters reported. China dominates the very supply chain the U.S. needs to expand storage capacity, even as Chinese import data points toward domestic self-sufficiency rather than seaborne demand growth.3
Whether China's domestic gas production can keep pace with the 5% consumption growth CNPC projects, and whether new LNG export capacity floods the seaborne market without crashing prices, will shape how far the U.S.-China AI commodity divergence extends into 2026.4