China coal-fired power approvals surge 160% as renewable additions slow

China coal-fired power approvals surge 160% as renewable additions slow New thermal plant commissioning hits record despite clean capacity surpassing coal for first time. China commissioned more than 160% more thermal power capacity in the first quarter compared with a year earlier, hitting an all-time high, data from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air show.¹ That matters because it exposes the structural tension at the heart of the world's largest energy consumer: Beijing is building coal plants at record pace even as wind and solar capacity has overtaken coal for the first time. Renewables reached 1,482 GW in Q1 2025, versus 1,450 GW for thermal.³ The coal buildout is a direct response to a fossil fuel crunch. In April, shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz cut China's crude oil imports by around 20% year-on-year and its natural gas imports by 13%.¹ The strait disruptions also hit the chemical industry, CREA analysts said.¹ Coal-fired power generation rose for the fourth consecutive month in April as total power demand climbed 6.6%. Weak wind conditions, poor solar performance and extended nuclear refuelling outages all contributed to the coal rebound.¹ That reversed a 4.7% decline in coal-fired output during Q1 2025.³ Yet coal imports are falling. China imported 490 million tons of coal last year, down 9.6% from 2024.⁵ The decline accelerated through 2025: by June, monthly imports had dropped 26% from the record 47.6 million tons reached in September 2024.³ Domestic production hit an all-time high in March, then inched down 1% in April to 385.63 million tons.² The import cutback is structural, not just a response to the Hormuz disruptions. China spent years boosting coal imports to power its electrification drive and a booming EV battery industry. In 2024 it imported 352.2 million tons, up 79% from 2020.⁴ Now domestic mines and renewables are displacing seaborne cargoes. But the clean energy buildout is uneven. Solar capacity additions fell 31% year-on-year in April, though they remained above Q1 2023 levels. Wind additions rose 8%.¹ Solar cell production dropped 25.6% year-on-year as weaker domestic installations and a slight export pullback took their toll.¹ Battery output tells a different story. It surged 55.6% year-on-year in April, driven by energy storage demand and exports.¹ New energy vehicles continued to gain share of total vehicle production.¹ China's EV and battery supply chains remain the bright spot in an otherwise slowing industrial sector. The export engine is still running. China notched a record $1.2 trillion trade surplus last year, driving about a third of its economic growth.⁷ The question is how long that can last as higher global energy prices squeeze consumer spending power abroad. The Economist has flagged that Chinese goods may be routing through third countries like Vietnam to reach US markets, complicating the trade picture.⁶ For coal traders, the signal is unmistakable. China's seaborne demand is shrinking structurally, and the only question is how fast. Thermal power commissioning in Q1 hit a record, but that capacity will face rising competition from renewables that have already surpassed coal by nameplate capacity.¹ The real test comes when the Hormuz disruptions end and China's import flows normalise. The CREA analysis suggests that when they do, coal plants will face an even tougher economic case.¹ The next data to watch is May's thermal generation figures. If weak wind and solar performance persists, coal output could keep rising. But the long-term trajectory for imports remains firmly downwards.