Australia's Data Center Load to Hit 34 TWh by 2036, AEMO Forecasts
AEMO's 2026 ESOO projects a sevenfold rise in data center power demand on the NEM, testing whether the record build pipeline arrives fast enough.
Australia's data centers consumed about 5 terawatt-hours of National Electricity Market power last year, a 3% share of total grid output. AEMO's 2026 Electricity Statement of Opportunities, released Monday (2026-08-24), projects that figure reaching 34 TWh by 2035-36, a sevenfold increase that would push the sector's share to 13% of NEM consumption as AI infrastructure investment accelerates across the country.4,3,6
That load surge arrives on a grid already absorbing thermal retirements. About 15 GW of coal and gas capacity is scheduled to exit the NEM over the next decade, the ESOO notes. Grid planners must fill that retirement gap while simultaneously accommodating nearly 29 additional terawatt-hours of annual data center demand.6
AEMO's 2026 ESOO argues the pipeline can handle it. Some 40 GW of new generation and storage is already committed or anticipated, with a further 33 GW backed by government programs. For scale, the entire NEM currently stands at 77 GW. Nine gigawatts was added in the past year alone, a new annual record, and 24 GW moved into committed or anticipated status since last year's ESOO.5,6
AEMO chief executive Daniel Westerman said Monday (2026-08-24) that the reliability outlook had improved relative to the 2025 report, with no forecast supply adequacy gaps identified before 2030. But the ESOO was explicit: timely delivery and operational availability of those committed projects are preconditions for that outlook to hold. A large pipeline on paper counts for less if grid connections and commissioning slip.5,6
Australia's position sits within a much larger global trend. Worldwide, data center electricity consumption reached 787.8 TWh in 2025, up from 658.2 TWh in 2024, a roughly 20% increase in a single year according to the Energy Institute's 2026 Statistical Review of World Energy. Since 2020, when global demand stood at 410.8 TWh, the sector has grown approximately 92%, averaging close to 14% annually.2
The United States accounts for the bulk of that growth. U.S. data centers consumed 312.6 TWh in 2025, representing 39.7% of the global total. Of the approximately 129.6 TWh added globally during 2025, the U.S. contributed about 63.5 TWh, nearly half the worldwide increment, per Energy Institute data. China ranked second at 205.7 TWh; Europe accounted for 144.6 TWh. Australia's current 5 TWh is a fraction of those figures, but its projected growth rate through 2036 outpaces the recent global average.2,3
The demand shift is already reshaping technology choices within Australia. CSIRO's latest GenCost report found that batteries are increasingly the preferred option for flexible generation, as rising data center load pushes up the cost profile of gas-fired capacity. South Australia's NEM day-ahead price was A$170.44/MWh Wednesday (2026-08-26), Victoria's was A$132.48/MWh, and NSW's was A$119.02/MWh. Queensland recorded A$104.83/MWh, the lowest of the major NEM states. Wallumbilla gas hub prices stood at A$10.80/GJ Wednesday (2026-08-26).1
AEMO logs no reliability gaps before 2030. After that point, the buffer rests on build rates the NEM has never sustained at this scale, absorbing both a data center demand curve driven by AI investment and the simultaneous departure of coal plants that have balanced the system for decades.5,6