B.C. Output Nearly Doubled by LNG Build, Piling Pressure on JKM
Statistics Canada data confirm B.C.'s gas output surge, compounding a North American LNG supply wave bearing on Asian spot prices.
A study released on August 20 (2026-08-20) found that pipeline and LNG terminal investment has nearly doubled British Columbia's oil and gas output over the past decade, using Statistics Canada data to put hard numbers behind what had previously been a projection-heavy argument about Canada's export capacity. The study concluded that the record leaves the output increase "clear and incontrovertible."6
For Asian LNG traders, B.C.'s expansion adds Pacific-facing supply at a moment when North American LNG export growth is already accelerating at a pace most demand-side forecasts struggle to fully absorb. JKM, the Asian spot LNG benchmark, was last quoted at $22.94/MMBtu on August 23 (2026-08-23), a price that reflects a market still digesting the scale of incoming supply from the Americas.6,5
RBAC's second-quarter 2026 base case projects US LNG exports more than doubling from 14.9 billion cubic feet per day in 2025 to 32.4 billion cubic feet per day by 2035. The EIA estimates that 44.9 billion cubic feet per day of new pipeline capacity could come online in the US during 2026-27, with 31.6 billion cubic feet per day already under construction as of August 10 (2026-08-10).5
Much of that feedgas originates in Texas, which accounts for around 29.7 billion cubic feet per day of planned capacity, with Louisiana contributing another 8.4 billion cubic feet per day. The recently completed Matterhorn Express, a 580-mile pipe, added 2.5 billion cubic feet per day of takeaway capacity from the Permian Basin alone, routing gas to the Katy Hub near Houston.5
Canada's contribution in RBAC's North American pipeline survey stands at 2.1 billion cubic feet per day, a figure the B.C. study suggests understates what the province's decade-long build has delivered.5,6
The economics of getting that gas to Asia depend on US wellhead prices staying cheap enough to make the Pacific voyage worthwhile. NYMEX Henry Hub front-month stood at $2.77/MMBtu on August 23 (2026-08-23). The EIA's own 2026 forecast of $3.80/MMBtu — itself a 13% downward revision from its previous month's estimate — sits well above where the forward curve is currently priced, suggesting the market has more confidence in continued supply abundance than the agency's headline number implies.1
But the long-dated picture is less settled. Wood Mackenzie analysts wrote in early July (2026-07-05) that Henry Hub could approach $5/MMBtu by 2035 as AI data centre load growth and the LNG export queue compete for the same resource base. EIA data show US LNG exports surged from 0.5 billion cubic feet per day in 2016 to 15.0 billion cubic feet per day in 2025, and exports already represent just over 15% of total US gas demand — a share that will rise sharply if RBAC's doubling forecast proves correct.2
The International Gas Union noted in mid-July (2026-07-07) that Middle East conflict has complicated LNG market forecasting, with infrastructure damage and price volatility creating new challenges for buyers exposed to spot. Yet during the Iran conflict specifically, NYMEX Henry Hub prices declined, showing US domestic supply remained insulated from the geopolitical shock that sent seaborne prices higher.3,4
For Asian buyers, the supply curve keeps lengthening. B.C.'s expanded production adds a second North American export vector alongside US Gulf Coast terminals. Flexible, destination-free US LNG cargoes can redirect quickly when the Atlantic-to-Pacific arbitrage opens, and the volume of such cargoes in circulation is growing year on year.6,5
The pace at which Henry Hub drifts toward the Wood Mackenzie long-run estimate matters more than any individual cargo dispatch. If rising US gas costs eat into export economics before the new wave of capacity is fully absorbed into long-term contracts, the bearish impulse flowing toward JKM from B.C. and the Gulf Coast will prove shorter-lived than the infrastructure build-out numbers alone suggest.2,5