China's 15th Five-Year Plan Sets Pipeline and Storage Targets Shaped by Hormuz Supply Risk
Beijing's plan targets 200 million tonnes of LNG terminal capacity and gas storage 13% above national consumption by 2030, accelerating domestic infrastructure against prolonged trade disruption.
China's 15th Five-Year Plan for oil and gas development, reported on Friday (2026-08-21), sets three headline infrastructure benchmarks for 2030: 200 million tonnes of LNG terminal capacity, 114 billion cubic metres of pipeline throughput, and domestic gas storage capacity running 13 percent above national consumption. The figures are the first concrete targets to emerge from what Beijing is calling the "national one network" buildout.6
The timing reflects a specific external shock. China's strategy has so far insulated it from the disruption caused by the war in Iran and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global oil and gas trade, according to oilprice.com. Beijing's planners have concluded that existing buffers are not sized for a sustained disruption. Setting storage 13 percent above consumption levels is a direct operational response to that conclusion.6
Domestic production provides a starting point the plan's architects can build on. China's oil and gas output reached record highs in 2025, China Daily reported, giving the country a supply base that previous five-year plans could not assume. The new plan's infrastructure targets are designed to move and store that output, not simply produce it.5
PetroChina's first-quarter 2026 results show domestic gas volumes already scaling at pace. The company sold 93.891 billion cubic metres of natural gas in the January-to-March 2026 period, up 6.9 percent from 87.869 billion cubic metres in the same quarter a year earlier, per its quarterly report. Demand growing at that rate gives the plan's pipeline and storage targets an operational rationale rather than a political one.2
Deep coalbed methane has become a material contributor to that growth. China's National Energy Administration placed the rapid scaling of deep coalbed gas among its Top 10 Landmark Achievements in oil and gas exploration for 2024. Output reached 2.5 billion cubic metres within three years. In 2024 alone, PetroChina Coalbed Methane Company produced nearly 2 billion cubic metres.1
Zhou Lihong, Executive Director of PetroChina Coalbed Methane Company, said cumulative coalbed methane reserves grew by 320 billion cubic metres over the past three years, with 77 percent of that increase coming from deep coalbed deposits. The long-range targets are explicit: by 2035, China aims to confirm 50 trillion cubic metres of confirmed deep coalbed gas reserves, with annual production reaching between 40 and 50 billion cubic metres.1
Industry projections published by the Economic Daily put total Chinese coalbed gas output at 17 billion cubic metres by 2025. Reaching the 2035 production range would require growing that figure by between 135 and 194 percent over the decade. Possible, given the reserve base Zhou described — but dependent on above-ground infrastructure scaling at a matching pace.1
Beijing is running the fossil fuel infrastructure expansion alongside, not instead of, its energy transition commitments. China's state-owned oil majors have been accelerating into renewable energy in pursuit of the country's "dual carbon" goals, while the National Development and Reform Commission and National Energy Administration separately issued a plan on August 12 (2026-08-12) targeting a modern coal industry by 2030 and expecting coal consumption to peak by that year. The 15th oil and gas plan does not displace those tracks; it runs in parallel.4,3
For LNG exporters and Asian gas buyers, the 200 million tonne terminal target is the number to watch. JKM, the Asian LNG benchmark, settled at $22.94/MMBtu — its August 22 level. If China simultaneously expands re-gasification capacity and scales deep coalbed production toward its 2035 targets, its position in long-term LNG contract negotiations shifts considerably, a dynamic that exporters from the United States, Qatar, and Australia are already working into their commercial planning.6
Execution carries its own uncertainties. Whether CNOOC, Sinopec, and PetroChina deploy capital at the pace the plan envisions will depend partly on prevailing project economics and partly on whether deep coalbed gas reserves convert to stable production rates at the volumes Zhou outlined. The 114 billion cubic metre pipeline capacity target is a planning document number. The capital commitments behind it have not yet been disclosed.6,1,2