Equinor Enters Namibia as Data Centre Expansion Tests Coal Phase-Out Targets
Rising power demand from semiconductor plants and data centres is slowing coal displacement, extending the addressable market for Norwegian gas exports.
Equinor agreed on Friday (2026-08-21) to acquire 17.4% of Chevron's offshore PEL 90 exploration licence in Namibia, the Norwegian state oil company's first upstream entry into a new country since 2017, with first exploration drilling in the Orange Basin planned. The move extends Equinor's production footprint at a point when its core gas business is looking at a longer commercial runway than many analysts projected several years ago.8
Semiconductor fabrication plants and data centres are multiplying faster than electricity networks anticipated, and their rising load is straining coal phase-out timelines in markets where coal still provides nearly 29% of generation. Eliminating that coal on a fixed schedule — without gas filling the gap — is proving harder to deliver.8
Equinor has been building its spending plans around precisely this extended demand profile. At its capital markets day on June 17 (2026-06-17), the company set annual capex guidance of $11-13 billion for 2028 through 2030, with roughly 60% directed at the Norwegian continental shelf. The company is targeting an additional 150,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, raising total output to 2.3 million boed by 2030.5,6
That growth plan sits alongside an earlier commitment to spend $6 billion a year through 2035 to prevent output from declining. Norway was already pumping 2.31 million barrels a day when those budgets were set. Equinor's own rationale was explicit: oil and gas demand is "expected to be higher for longer," reinforced by a sharper political focus on energy security.4,6
The IEA's Electricity 2026 report gives that reasoning some institutional grounding. Global power demand is expected to grow at more than 3% a year on average for the rest of this decade. The agency sees coal's share eroding as nuclear and renewables expand, with natural gas also growing in the mix. Renewable output is forecast to grow by around 1,000 TWh annually through 2030, with solar PV alone contributing more than 600 TWh — a significant expansion, but one that leaves room for gas during transition periods, particularly when weather constrains hydro and wind output.1
Equinor has been securing that demand through long-term supply contracts. A deal disclosed in May (2026-05-19) with Dutch utility Eneco covers up to 0.5 billion cubic metres a year of certified Norwegian gas. Eneco expects the switch to cut its reported CO2 emissions by more than 10%. For Equinor, multi-year agreements lock in cash flows against a forecast decline that Wood Mackenzie says could see the world's 30 largest exploration and production companies lose nearly 40% of their output by 2040 without sustained reserve replacement.2
Within Norway, power infrastructure is being expanded to absorb the same demand surge. State-owned Statkraft announced plans to invest Nkr 80 billion — around €8.5 billion — in Norwegian hydropower over the next decade, positioning the company as one of the largest contributors to new domestic industrial capacity. The scale of that commitment reflects both the anticipated growth from industrial loads and the stress that manufacturing expansion places on hydro-dominated grids.3
Equinor's balance sheet is supporting the expansion without apparent strain. The company declared a second-quarter 2026 dividend of $0.39 per share and authorised a share buyback of $3.2 billion, including the state's liability.7 As of mid-May 2026, shares traded at €31.96, having gained roughly 59% over the prior twelve months, though the relative strength index at that point sat near 79, in overbought territory, suggesting the share price had run ahead of fundamentals even as the operational thesis looked intact.2
The Namibia licence is small relative to Equinor's Norwegian shelf commitments and early-stage by definition, but the Orange Basin has attracted sustained interest from major oil companies, and early positions in frontier acreage carry option value that balance sheets cannot fully price in advance. Traders and equity holders will be watching whether the data centre and semiconductor buildout sustains a gas demand curve long enough to justify $11-13 billion in annual capex from 2028 onward — an answer that power demand data over the next two winters will start to shape.8,5