BloombergNEF Projects 44% Nuclear Capacity Surge as China Overtakes U.S. by 2036
China's nuclear fleet is set to nearly double while global battery storage races toward 3.8 terawatts, yet coal still supplies 35% of world electricity.
The uranium exchange-traded fund URA rose 5.09% at Friday's (2026-08-21) close, with investors pricing in BloombergNEF projections that show global nuclear capacity rising 44% to 535 gigawatts by 2036, from 372 GW installed at the end of 2025.5
China accounts for most of that growth. BloombergNEF's report, published on Wednesday (2026-07-08), shows China nearly doubling its nuclear fleet from 59 GW to 102 GW over the decade, surpassing the United States as the world's largest nuclear power holder. A separate BloombergNEF "2026 New Energy Outlook" places 80% of new nuclear capacity in China and India combined.5,3
India's ambitions are larger in relative terms and considerably more expensive. A panel commissioned by India's power ministry has estimated that reaching the government's target of 100 GW of nuclear capacity by 2047, up from just 8.8 GW now, would require 19.28 trillion Indian rupees. India's Nuclear Energy Mission describes deployment of "existing and emerging advanced nuclear technologies, both indigenous and with foreign cooperation." The gap between current installed capacity and the 2047 target is roughly eleven-fold.5
Solar complicates this nuclear-led narrative. BloombergNEF and other forecasters project solar will overtake every other power source to become the world's largest source of electricity by 2032, driven by lower costs, technology improvements, and surplus manufacturing capacity, Asian Power reported.2,3
Battery storage is advancing in parallel. Global battery storage capacity is expected to reach 3.8 terawatts by 2035, according to the same outlook. Energy storage systems overall are set to grow 17-fold by 2050.2,3
But 2025 offered a check on both projections. The IEA reported that solar PV became the largest single contributor to growth in global energy supply for the first time last year. Yet U.S. coal-fired generation rose 13% over the same period, contributing significantly to a global emissions increase in which North America drove nearly half the growth, OilPrice.com reported. U.S. electricity demand grew 3% in 2025. U.S. solar generation expanded more than 28% in the same year.8,4,6
The combination of coal up 13% and solar up 28% reflects a demand base large enough to absorb both simultaneously. The U.S. accounted for 40% of global data center electricity consumption in 2025, underscoring the scale of load growth from artificial intelligence and cloud infrastructure. BloombergNEF's "2026 New Energy Outlook" projects data center power demand will double by 2050.4,3
Coal is not retreating quietly. Roughly 2,100 GW of coal capacity remained operational worldwide as of 2024, with coal supplying approximately 35% of global electricity, according to globalelectricity.org. Retirements in wealthy economies are being offset by new capacity additions in Asia.1
India extends that runway. The IEA has said India will be the world's largest driver of energy demand growth by 2035, with demand rising by over 15 exajoules by that year, nearly matching the combined growth of China and Southeast Asia, driven by rapid urbanisation and clean-energy investment.7
Gas sits across all of these trends. BloombergNEF's "2026 New Energy Outlook" projects natural gas will surpass oil as the largest primary energy source by the mid-2030s, ahead of both oil demand erosion from electric vehicles and solar's growing electricity share.3
The COAL ETF closed Friday (2026-08-21) up 2.90%, and Newcastle coal physical was at $124.55 per tonne at Friday's (2026-08-21) close. JKM Asian LNG settled at $22.94 per MMBtu at Friday's (2026-08-21) close. Neither price signals the transition accelerating near-term.1
The figure that matters most for the nuclear buildout is India's financing gap. A shortfall between the 19.28 trillion rupee cost estimate for 100 GW by 2047 and committed capital would push India back toward gas and coal for longer than BloombergNEF assumes, leaving JKM and Newcastle coal supported through much of the next decade.5,7