European Gas Rebounds to €65 After August Profit-Taking as Hormuz Shipping Stays Contested
TTF front-month has recovered to €65.30/MWh after an early-August pullback, but European storage running nine points below last year's pace leaves LNG supply exposure high.
ICE Endex TTF front-month traded at €65.30 per megawatt-hour as of Friday morning (2026-08-21), recovering most of the ground lost after profit-taking on Thursday (2026-08-06) pulled prices 3.1% lower to around €59.18. That pullback briefly interrupted a sustained rally in European wholesale gas markets driven by months of disruptions to LNG shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.8
European storage provides little cushion. Facilities were approximately 47% full as of mid-July 2026, against 56% at the same point in 2025, according to figures cited alongside the July price spike. LNG accounts for roughly 25% of Europe's total gas supply, according to Chris Wheaton, oil and gas analyst at Stifel, a share that makes Hormuz shipping conditions a direct constraint on the autumn refill trajectory.5,3
The disruption dates to March, when nearly 20% of global LNG supply was halted at the strait, sending Asian and European prices to their highest since the 2022/23 energy crisis, Global LNG Hub reported. Goldman Sachs estimated the disruption reduced near-term global LNG supply by about 19%.4,3
A second leg higher hit Europe in May. TTF surged 35% in a single session on Tuesday (2026-05-19) to more than €60 per megawatt-hour, ending the week of 2026-05-18 roughly 76% above where it started, CNBC reported. A formal US-Iran ceasefire then offered brief relief. But Montel reported that European gas still rose 2.2% on Thursday (2026-05-21) as traders doubted the practicalities of restoring full shipping through the strait.3,1
Fresh tensions resurfaced in July. The Dutch front-month gained 3.5% on Monday (2026-07-13) to €50.37 per megawatt-hour, a one-month high, with the equivalent UK contract rising 4% as markets responded to renewed Middle East conflict reports.5
Another short-lived reversal followed. The TTF August 2026 contract slumped 8.58% to $66.29 — equivalent to €58.12 per megawatt-hour — at the Amsterdam open on Monday (2026-07-27), after the United States paused airstrikes on Iran over the preceding weekend and Tehran signaled a halt to retaliatory attacks. Prices subsequently recovered, but by Thursday (2026-08-06) traders had taken profits on the rebound, pulling the Dutch front-month 3.1% lower to around €59.18.7,8
Asian LNG markets have remained firm throughout. Spot prices in Asia jumped 10% in the week to mid-July 2026 to their highest since March, oilprice.com reported. On Thursday (2026-07-16), Asian LNG spot hit $20.2 per million British thermal units, traders told Bloomberg. JKM front-month stood at $22.61 per million British thermal units as of Friday (2026-08-21), above that July reference, suggesting Asian buyers have not stepped back from the market.6
Competition from Asia complicates Europe's refill effort. Market participants told Montel on Monday (2026-05-18) that rising Asian demand coinciding with EU stock replenishment was likely to support prices. Seb Kennedy, independent energy analyst at Energy Flux, noted that demand destruction in some Asian countries had provided partial relief, but that has not resolved the underlying competition for available LNG cargoes.2
TTF's return to €65.30 from the August 6 trough of €59.18, roughly two weeks later, suggests the profit-taking cleared positions rather than reflected a genuine reassessment. European storage still sits nine percentage points below last year's pace heading into the final months of the refill season. Hormuz shipping arrangements remain unresolved, and with limited alternative supply routes available at scale, any fresh deterioration in Middle East conditions leaves European buyers with a narrowing window to close that gap before winter demand arrives.8,5