Iran Holds Hormuz Grip as ICE Brent Climbs Back Above $91
Persian Gulf flows stuck below 45% of pre-war levels have pushed crude prices sharply higher since a brief deal eased market fears in late June.
ICE Brent crude front-month sat at $91.65 a barrel as of 2026-08-19, up more than $17 from the $73.74 level it touched on June 24 (2026-06-24) when tankers briefly began exiting the Strait of Hormuz in larger numbers. Persian Gulf flows had dropped below 45% of pre-war levels, Goldman Sachs analyst Dan Struyven wrote in a note to clients on July 21 (2026-07-21), a decline he cited as the key driver pushing prices back up.3,6
The recovery strips out the optimism that gripped oil traders in late June. Three tankers carrying 5 million barrels of crude were exiting the strait on June 24 (2026-06-24) under an interim US-Iran deal, Reuters reported, and ICE Brent futures closed that day 4.3% lower at $73.74 a barrel. Around 20 million barrels of crude had exited the strait in the preceding 24 hours, according to Matt Wright speaking at the Reuters Global Energy Forum in New York.3
That optimism had legs only briefly. Iran's joint military command warned on July 2 (2026-07-02) that oil tankers transiting the strait had no guarantee of safe passage despite US military protection, oilprice.com reported.4
Within days, vessels were executing unexplained maneuvers. A batch of ships performed U-turns and detours in the corridor on July 5 (2026-07-05), according to Rigzone, before six oil and gas freighters were observed navigating a US-protected route near Oman on July 6 (2026-07-06). The brief resumption looked more like a test than a trend.5
By July 21 (2026-07-21), the picture looked like stalemate. Iran was sustaining daily attacks from US forces and retaliating against Gulf states while maintaining what oilprice.com described as a determination to hold Hormuz leverage at all costs. Amin Saikal, emeritus professor at the Australian National University, described the situation as a "quagmire."6
Iran's position at the strait draws on structures that predate the current conflict. The IRGC exercises a chokehold over Hormuz and controls transport and communications across much of the Gulf through nominally private companies affiliated with Khatam al-Anbiya, The Economist reported.2
The commercial exposure is concentrated. Some 90% of Iran's crude normally departs from Kharg Island, where vessels now operate with emergency escape procedures at the outermost T-jetty, The Economist reported. Alternative loading facilities, pushed to their maximum, could handle only 25% of Kharg Island's current export volume, according to an estimate from Richard Nephew, a former US envoy to Iran. China absorbs over 90% of Iran's oil, making Beijing's continued appetite for those barrels a separate variable in how any deal eventually moves supply.2
The queue of stranded crude that formed earlier this year showed what was at stake. Three supertankers carrying 6 million barrels of Middle East crude waited in the Gulf for more than two months before crossing Hormuz on May 20 (2026-05-20), LSEG and Kpler shipping data showed. Among them was the South Korean-flagged VLCC Universal Winner, loaded with 2 million barrels of Kuwaiti crude on March 4 (2026-03-04). The Chinese-flagged VLCC Yuan Gui Yang had taken on 2 million barrels of Iraqi Basrah crude on February 27 (2026-02-27), a day before the US-Israeli war on Iran began.1
With ICE Brent now back above $91 a barrel, the pace of any sanctions easing matters considerably. Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, told Reuters that Iranian production and exports could ramp relatively quickly if sanctions were lifted, "weeks rather than months," given the volume held on tankers. But that ramp depends entirely on whether tankers can actually move — and Iran's conduct since July 2 (2026-07-02) shows it intends to keep that decision in its own hands.3