Australia's CIS Pipeline Shows 29GW Awarded but Only 3.3GW at Financial Close
A WattClarity review of five NEM tender rounds finds a widening gap between capacity awarded and capacity progressing to construction, ahead of the 2026 ESOO release.
Of the 29,177 MW of generation capacity awarded across five NEM rounds of Australia's Capacity Investment Scheme, just 3,338 MW — spread across 14 projects — had reached financial close as of Monday (2026-08-17), according to WattClarity's review of the CIS pipeline published that day. Six of those 14 projects, representing the bulk of the commissioned capacity, had progressed beyond FID to active development. Of the 89 projects that won CIS contracts, 75 have not yet reached financial close.5
For NEM spot market participants, the divergence matters. AEMO's own generation information database is currently classifying 33 projects, totalling 10,436 MW, as "Anticipated" or higher status — a designation implying meaningful near-term grid contribution. The gap between that 10,436 MW classification and the 3,338 MW that has actually cleared financial close is roughly 7,000 MW sitting at the heart of how participants and planners should read the forward capacity outlook ahead of the 2026 Electricity Statement of Opportunities, expected in August.5
WattClarity's count, compiled in the week of Monday (2026-08-10), found that only a handful of additional projects progressed to FID in the near-year since their initial review of the same pipeline. Tender awards move fast. Construction decisions do not, and that asymmetry is now embedded in the official capacity classifications.5
Pipeline data from the Clean Energy Regulator, updated weekly, tells a related story. Australia's probable large-scale renewable capacity stood at 32,277 MW as of late June (2026-06-17), a figure the CER attributes substantially to the registration of CIS Tenders 5, 6 and 7 awards into the dataset. Tender 7 alone allocated 7.8 GW across the NEM, with wind accounting for more than 7 GW of that total. CIS Tender 6 added 3,683 GWh of standalone battery storage.3
But probable is not committed. Committed capacity — projects at FID or with construction announced — stood at 7,354 MW as of late May (2026-05-29), up from around 5,600 MW in mid-2025 but still well short of the trajectory implied by ISP targets. The probable queue stood at roughly 13,600 MW in mid-2025 before CIS awards inflated it, jumping to just over 20,000 MW in October 2025 following earlier awards, then nearly doubling again following registrations for Tenders 5, 6 and 7. The conversion of that paper pipeline into steel and cables is moving at a different pace entirely.3
Each step up in the probable queue corresponds directly to a tender registration event, not to construction activity. That distinction matters for medium-term price modelling and reserve margin projections built on the CER data. If the probable figure is treated as a proxy for near-term supply, models carry a systematic optimism bias relative to actual build rates.3
AEMO's Medium-Term PASA modelling, published on Tuesday (2026-08-04), flagged forecast reserve shortfalls in Victoria and South Australia. The 2026 ESOO, expected in August, will set the formal reliability outlook. How AEMO reconciles its generation information classifications — the 10,436 MW it marks "Anticipated" or higher — with the 3,338 MW that has actually passed financial close is one of the more consequential editorial decisions in that document.4,5
Successive tender tranches have continued to load the scheme. CIS Tender 9, launched in late May (2026-05-25), is seeking an indicative 5 GW of NEM generation capacity, with allocations of 300 MW earmarked for Tasmania and 1.6 GW for Victoria, including a 470 MW technology-specific sublimit. The remaining 3.1 GW is unallocated but could flow to Queensland or South Australia. New South Wales is excluded, with developers in that state directed to the re-started NSW Roadmap scheme.2,1
Tender 9 also carries a dedicated 500 MW allocation for projects committed to First Nations equity or revenue-sharing arrangements of at least 5% participation — a feature absent from earlier rounds. Projects must have a minimum installed capacity of 30 MW and a credible pathway to commercial operation.2
The CIS has awarded capacity at scale. What it has not yet done, in volume, is convert those awards into generation sitting on the grid. Capacity marked "Anticipated" in AEMO's generation information system shapes medium-term price modelling, reserve margin projections and market participant hedging strategies. If that status is inflated relative to projects' actual development progress, models built on it carry systematic errors. When the 2026 ESOO lands, the number worth pulling is whether AEMO tightens its "Anticipated" classifications toward actual financial close rates — particularly for Victoria and South Australia heading into summer.4,5