US Data Centre Buildout Seen Pushing Nationwide Power Demand Up 20% as Gas Dependence Deepens
Natural gas supplied more than 40% of US data centre electricity in 2024; government projections show the sector's grid share could nearly triple by 2028.
BloombergNEF's latest estimate for US data centre power demand has come in at nearly double the firm's December 2025 projection and already exceeds what BloombergNEF's analysts believe the existing grid can handle, Canary Media reported on Friday (2026-07-24).4
That revision sits alongside government data that were already stark. Official estimates placed data centres at 4.6% of total US electricity consumption in 2024, a share that could nearly triple by 2028. The fuel carrying most of that demand is gas. The International Energy Agency put natural gas at more than 40% of the electricity powering US data centres in 2024, with coal supplying 30% of data centre power globally.2
Some analysts now project US nationwide electricity consumption rising as much as 20% over the next decade, with data centres a primary driver. Those are analyst-range estimates rather than official forecasts, but they run in the same direction as BloombergNEF's revised numbers and the government's tripling scenario.2,4
The pace of change is already showing in corporate emissions filings. Google's greenhouse gas output jumped nearly 50% in recent years; Meta's climbed more than 60%; Amazon's rose 33%; Microsoft's increased more than 23%, Fortune reported on Tuesday (2026-05-19). Each of those companies had previously committed to running on clean electricity by 2030.2
Google now calls its 2030 clean-power target a "moonshot." Microsoft says it is still pursuing carbon removal goals but has acknowledged slippage. Industry participants quoted by Fortune were direct: "Even if they haven't officially revised their goals, they are starting to acknowledge that, 'Yeah, we're maybe not on track.'"2
BloombergNEF's broader assessment, also published in May (2026-05-19), concluded that AI-driven data centre expansion will keep fossil fuels in use for longer across the power sector, identifying the sector as a key new source of electricity demand for the coming decade.1
The Trump administration's preferred fix has been co-location: encouraging tech companies to build gas-fired generation plants directly beside data centre campuses, bypassing interconnection queues that can stretch years long. The administration argues the approach protects ratepayers from price increases as large industrial loads arrive in local grids.3
Canary Media's analysis on Friday (2026-07-24) found that off-grid gas would not resolve the underlying capacity problem. Demand growth is already outrunning what the shared grid can accommodate, meaning self-supply by individual hyperscalers does not relieve system-wide pressure on infrastructure that others still depend on.4
Big tech's investor communications have acknowledged the strain. Companies have told investors and regulators they must remain "flexible" as they build campuses able to draw more power than entire cities. That flexibility, in practice, has meant higher gas consumption and rising emissions against their own stated targets.2
NYMEX Henry Hub front-month was $2.78 per million British thermal units in Wednesday's (2026-08-19) session. At that price, the commercial incentive for large-scale new gas generation is not obvious on a spot basis — capacity markets and long-term power purchase agreements carry more weight for investment decisions than the prompt contract. What gas developers, utilities and regulators have not yet worked out is whether new capacity can be permitted and built fast enough to track a demand curve that BloombergNEF's revised projections say is already beyond current grid limits.2,4