Green Hydrogen's 7% Delivery Rate Undercuts Its Energy Security Case
A Nature Energy study of 190 projects found only 7% of planned green hydrogen capacity was finished in 2023, complicating the fuel's role as a Hormuz hedge.
A study published in Nature Energy found that just 7% of planned global green hydrogen projects were completed on schedule in 2023. Tracking 190 projects over three years, the research identified a wide implementation gap between announced capacity and delivered output, Oilprice.com reported on Tuesday (2026-08-18).6
The timing is awkward for an industry that has been recast as an energy security asset. The Middle East conflict has forced markets to reassess alternatives to Gulf hydrocarbons, and hydrogen was among the candidates. Wood Mackenzie estimates the delivered cost of low-carbon ammonia in Europe at $700 to $1,100 per tonne, with only the lowest-cost green projects now price-competitive with conventional supply. Asian Power reported that the market's growth will likely depend on government support.5,6
The Strait of Hormuz carried about 18.2 million barrels per day of crude and refined products in 2025, representing roughly one-quarter of global seaborne oil trade and about one-fifth of global LNG trade, according to OGJ data. Asian economies absorbed nearly 80% of those oil flows. China imported close to 5 million b/d through the strait; India, Japan, and South Korea each took roughly 2 million b/d.4
The IEA estimated that global oil supply fell by 12.8 million b/d from the onset of the conflict, declining a further 1.8 million b/d month-on-month in May. OPEC+ production dropped 1.9 million b/d between March and April to 40.1 million b/d, leaving output 11.9 million b/d below pre-war levels. ICE Brent crude front-month traded at $91.36 per barrel as of 0751 UTC on Wednesday (2026-08-19).4
One mooted alternative to Hormuz dependence is an Iraq-Syria pipeline that would route oil exports around the strait. Oilprice.com reported on Tuesday (2026-08-18) that the route is four years from completion and carries a $15 billion price tag. That timeline leaves importers dependent on existing supply corridors well beyond any near-term planning horizon.6
China's domestic route to hydrogen also faces an obstacle. Oilprice.com's Tuesday (2026-08-18) coverage noted that the country's renewables expansion is running into record clean power curtailments, restricting the ability to convert surplus electricity into hydrogen at scale. China is both the world's largest importer of Hormuz crude and the country with the most ambitious green hydrogen targets — the curtailment data constrains both simultaneously.6
In Europe, Daniyal Sheikh, hydrogen market analyst at ICIS, told Canary Media in October (2025) that projects need to "show a lot of progress in the next 12 to 18 months" to maintain investor confidence. ICE Endex TTF front-month gas traded at €63.62 per MWh, recorded at 0815 UTC on Wednesday (2026-08-19); the Economist reported on May 17th (2026-05-17) that European gas had already surged to €50 per MWh, a 55%-plus weekly jump as the Gulf conflict intensified.2,1
The European green steel sector, dependent on hydrogen-based direct reduced iron production, is among the end-users most exposed to delivery shortfalls. Quest One executive vice president Nima Pegemanyfar, based in Hamburg, has been working against hydrogen supply timelines that the 7% completion rate makes harder to defend.2
The Nature Energy dataset covers 2023, before the Hormuz conflict began. But the execution shortfall is not a product of wartime supply chain disruption. Projects were slow before the crisis made speed a security imperative.6
Wood Mackenzie warned in a report that Asia faces direct exposure to LNG supply loss and price volatility, with trade routes and pricing already shifting globally. JKM Asian LNG stood at $21.88 per MMBtu, recorded at 0751 UTC on Wednesday (2026-08-19). Europe and Asia have both identified green hydrogen as a supply security asset. Neither has announced binding subsidy commitments large enough to shift execution rates that, as of 2023, sat at 7%.3,6