Pemex Refinery Utilization Collapses Back to 58% as Mexico's Fuel Import Bill Climbs Again
Mexico's refining expansion has stalled mid-year, pushing fuel imports back toward 2024 highs and exposing the limits of Pemex's operational capacity.
Mexico's state oil company Pemex processed around 1 million barrels per day through its domestic refineries in recent months — just 58% of installed capacity — while fuel imports climbed back toward levels that undercut the government's self-sufficiency drive, according to data reported by OilPrice.com on August 13 (2026-08-13).2
The numbers tell a contradictory story. Pemex had been making genuine progress. Refinery runs climbed from 785,000 b/d in late 2024 to around 1.2 million b/d between December 2025 and March 2026, aided by the ramp-up of the new Dos Bocas refinery and the installation of a new coker at Tula. Clean-product imports responded accordingly, falling from an average of roughly 750,000 b/d in 2024 to around 520,000 b/d in the first five months of 2026.2
Then the system slipped. Crude processing started falling in April and was back near 1.01 million b/d by June. Fuel imports moved in the opposite direction with uncomfortable speed: around 620,000 b/d in May, rising to approximately 700,000 b/d in June. Six months of hard-won throughput gains erased in a quarter.2
Even at the December-to-March peak, the picture was not as strong as it looked. Pemex was running 1.2 million b/d through a system with roughly 1.75 million b/d of installed capacity — excluding the Deer Park refinery in Texas — meaning utilization never exceeded about two-thirds of nameplate capacity. The question the data raises, and does not fully answer, is whether the mid-year decline reflects planned maintenance, mechanical failure, crude supply problems, or some combination. The source material attributes the broader pattern to Pemex being asked to run more crude domestically than it has consistently proven capable of processing.2
That gap between installed capacity and reliable throughput is the central problem. Mexico has spent heavily on refining infrastructure in recent years. Dos Bocas, the flagship project under former President López Obrador, was intended to demonstrate national energy sovereignty. The Tula coker upgrade added complexity-handling capability. But building plant and operating it at sustained high rates are different skills, and the data suggest Pemex has not closed that gap.2
For the US Gulf Coast, Mexico's refining struggles are not a side issue. Mexico is a significant buyer of US refined products; when Pemex throughput drops and imports rise, US refiners benefit from the demand pull. US refineries were already running at unusually high rates in the second quarter of 2026, processing the most crude for that quarter since 2019, when US refining capacity was 4% higher, according to EIA estimates. Distillate exports in that period averaged an estimated 1.56 million b/d, 30% above the five-year average, and jet fuel exports reached approximately 356,000 b/d, more than double the five-year average.1
The broader crude market context adds pressure. ICE Brent crude front-month was trading at $91.58 per barrel as of August 18 (2026-08-18) at 05:51 UTC, elevated in part by Strait of Hormuz disruptions that tightened global supply throughout the second quarter. The EIA estimated average global crude inventory draws of 5.1 million b/d in Q2 2026. For Pemex, higher crude prices squeeze refining economics on a system already running below its theoretical potential.1,2
US crack spreads reinforced how well-positioned American refiners were in this environment. The quarterly average gasoline crack spread in Q2 2026 was up 60% from the year-ago level, with distillate and jet fuel spreads also sharply elevated, per EIA data. Mexico's product import needs fed directly into that demand.1
The policy tension inside Mexico is real. The government's stated strategy is to reduce crude exports and push more barrels through domestic refineries. But the June utilization data suggest Pemex cannot yet sustain the throughput rates required to make that policy work. Redirecting crude that would otherwise be exported into refineries running at 58% capacity does not eliminate import dependence; it just shifts where the losses fall.2
What traders should watch is whether Pemex's June throughput trough was a temporary maintenance-driven dip or the start of a sustained pullback. If imports stay near 700,000 b/d through the third quarter, it would signal that the December-to-March recovery was a ceiling rather than a floor — and that US Gulf refiners will continue to capture Mexican product demand at elevated crack spreads well into the second half of 2026.2,1