Hormuz Shipping Safety at Wartime Nadir as Tanker Traffic Falls to Two-Month Low
Security firms say Gulf shipping hazard has reached a wartime peak as tanker flows through Hormuz hit a two-month low.
Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell to its lowest in more than two months during the week of August 3, as attacks on vessels escalated and analysts at security and vessel-tracking firms told the BBC that shipping safety had deteriorated to its worst point since the Iran war began. ICE Brent crude front-month was at $90.67 a barrel on Monday (2026-08-17), with Dubai crude — the region's physical benchmark — at $84.44 on the same date.6
The strait carries roughly 20% of the world's daily oil supply, making Hormuz traffic data an observable proxy for what diplomatic channels have so far failed to resolve. JKM, the Asian LNG spot marker, was at $21.61 per MMBtu on Monday (2026-08-17), reflecting the sustained premium North Asian buyers are paying to source alternative supplies.1,3
The pattern since late spring has been one of short respites followed by renewed disruption. After the US lifted its naval blockade outside the chokepoint in late June and Washington and Tehran began discussing a peace framework, Iranian crude moved through quickly. Vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg showed at least three supertankers carrying a combined 6 million barrels of Iranian crude transiting Hormuz on Monday (2026-06-22) in open AIS navigation, with Singaporean waters listed as their destination.2
That window closed fast. By mid-July the strait had become contested again. Saxo Bank noted in a market quick take on Monday (2026-07-13) that oil prices jumped "after the battle for control over the Strait of Hormuz escalated over the weekend," following fresh US and Iranian strikes. ICE Brent front-month contracts gained more than 3% that session, according to CNBC TV18 data, building on a 5.5% advance during the week of June 29. Brent was above $78 a barrel at the time.4,3
Iran announced the strait closed "until further notice." US Central Command denied the claim. That divergence left commercial shippers with no reliable guidance on transit viability — a gap that AIS vessel-tracking data has had to fill in place of any agreed operational protocol.3
Waleed Said, technical analyst at GivTrade, said in an analysis sent to Rigzone on Monday (2026-07-13) that Brent and WTI could climb further as traders continued to price in disruption risk across Hormuz and other critical supply routes. NYMEX WTI front-month was above $74 a barrel at the time of that note and stood at $83.62 on Monday (2026-08-17).4
The diplomatic track has produced no verifiable commitment on transit rights. A Foreign Policy analysis from July 15 noted that passage fees are likely inevitable as part of any settlement, but no mechanism for enforcing such an arrangement existed at the time of writing. Both sides have stated they want the strait open; they disagree on the conditions.5
The gap between diplomatic statements and AIS data is now the practical variable traders are pricing. Bloomberg's vessel-tracking record of three supertankers running openly through the strait in late June was a more actionable signal than any ceasefire announcement from either capital. The collapse in tanker traffic through early August shows how quickly that signal can reverse.6,2
Middle Eastern producers that rerouted volumes overland during the closure face capacity limits on those alternatives. CNBC reported in late May that producers were still scrambling to expand alternative routes nearly two months after Hormuz effectively shut to commercial traffic. Those corridors absorb some volume but cannot substitute for the strait at scale.1
"The $110 trillion global economy can be taken hostage by a couple of hundred men with guns across a 50-kilometer stretch of strait — it doesn't make sense at all," one observer told CNBC, putting a frame around the vulnerability oil markets have been repricing since the conflict began.1
Any sustained uptick in AIS-tracked commercial vessel movements through Hormuz would be the most credible indicator that security conditions have genuinely shifted — more credible, given the track record, than statements from either capital.6