CORSIA futures slip below $10 as jet fuel costs blunt airline buying
ICE CORSIA-eligible unit futures broke below $10 per tonne in the week of May 25, extending losses as elevated jet fuel prices suppressed airline demand.
ICE futures for CORSIA-eligible emissions units dipped below $10 per tonne in the week of 2026-05-25, with price assessments for eligible units falling more than 12% week-on-week, Carbon Pulse reported. Market executives cited hope for a demand rebound once post-war conditions stabilise, but buyers did not act on that optimism.3
Airlines under the UN aviation scheme need CORSIA-eligible units to offset emissions growth on international routes. Elevated jet fuel costs have squeezed carrier margins through 2026, leaving them unwilling to absorb voluntary offset purchases at any level above where the market has now broken. The 12% weekly decline in the week ending 2026-05-29 accelerated after price assessments failed to hold support near the $10 mark.3
Against this pricing weakness, a separate data point from the broader carbon complex complicates the picture. EEX handled almost double the volume of EU carbon futures in the first half of the year, with secondary market volumes rising 74% year-on-year to 249.3 million tonnes, exchange data showed on 2026-07-09. That consisted almost entirely of EUA futures transactions, with just 1,000 tonnes of UKAs traded on the exchange.5
Volume growth without price support is a familiar combination. Traders are using the carbon market to manage compliance risk, but the directional conviction that would lift prices has been absent. EUA prices posted their first weekly loss since the start of May in the week ended 2026-06-05, falling 4.6% over the period despite a modest consolidation on 2026-06-05 itself that held the daily decline to just 0.2%.4
Analysts surveyed by Reuters in July 2025 kept their EU carbon price forecasts roughly steady, with the spectre of US tariffs and soft industrial output holding back any material upgrade. That caution has not dissipated through 2026. The CORSIA slide suggests the same risk-off tone is now weighing on the voluntary side as well.6
ETS2, the EU scheme covering buildings and road transport, has offered little by way of a positive signal. Liquidity has struggled since ICE launched contracts a year ago, analysts told Montel, and the slow uptake raises questions about how the EU's expanded carbon pricing will function when it becomes obligatory.2
On the voluntary side, one US bank signed its second carbon removal offtake deal with a bio-oil developer in early June, bringing its total commitment with the company to 90,000 tonnes, Carbon Pulse reported on 2026-06-05. That is a real transaction, but it is a niche corner of the market and does not represent the scale of airline buying that CORSIA prices need.4
Seven analyst signals tracked for CORSIA units point in the same bearish direction. The sole dissenting view comes from Japan, where policy support for Tokyo's decarbonisation goals could feed through into broader carbon demand. Confidence in that read is low, and Japan's baseload electricity market is a thin thread on which to hang a bullish case for an aviation-focused compliance instrument.1
The sub-$10 level now functions as a marker. Holders of eligible units from earlier vintages are sitting on mark-to-market losses. Sellers need buyers to return before the autumn compliance window, and buyers have shown no urgency. If airlines begin building CORSIA positions ahead of their next reporting deadline, prices could find footing. Absent that, the $8 area becomes the next reference point, with no obvious catalyst in the packet to prevent it.3
EEX volume data and EUA price action will continue to offer a partial read on institutional sentiment toward carbon broadly. But the correlation is loose. Rising EEX volumes have not translated into EUA price support in 2026, and there is no mechanical link between EUA moves and CORSIA assessments beyond shared macro headwinds. The next concrete signal for CORSIA specifically is airline procurement behaviour heading into the second half of the year, and as of the week of 2026-05-25's close, that behaviour remains firmly on the sidelines.5,43