Ukrainian Strikes Hold Russian Refinery Throughput at 21-Year Low, Squeezing Global Diesel
S&P Global cut its second-half global run forecast by 2.4 million bpd as Russian processing shows no near-term recovery path from multi-decade lows.
Russia's diesel export ban has removed roughly 10 percent of waterborne diesel supply from global markets, S&P Global Energy warned in analysis published on Thursday (2026-08-13), cutting its global refinery run forecast for the second half of 2026 by 2.4 million bpd to 80.1 million bpd. Daniel Evans, S&P Global's head of fuels and refining research, said the global refining system has little spare room left to respond.5
Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian processing infrastructure are the primary driver. Since March, the attacks have pushed crude throughput to an average of 3.91 million bpd in early July (2026-07), according to data published by Rigzone — the lowest rate in more than 21 years. June and July runs were among the worst in two decades. Rigzone reported that throughput is forecast to average around 4 million bpd from July through December, nearly 30 percent below the 2016–2023 seasonal average of approximately 5.7 million bpd.1,2
Moscow responded by banning exports of gasoline, jet fuel and diesel. The ban formalised a withdrawal already well advanced: S&P Global estimated Russian diesel exports had fallen approximately 500,000 bpd below year-prior levels before the ban took effect. With a tenth of waterborne diesel supply removed, importing regions have no straightforward replacement at that volume.5,2
The processing collapse is also redirecting crude. Russia shipped 3.71 million bpd in the four weeks ending August 9 (2026-08-09), Bloomberg vessel-tracking data show, the lowest seaborne crude export rate since May. The most recent single week was starker still: shipments dropped to 3.25 million bpd from 3.5 million bpd the week prior, as recovering refinery runs absorbed barrels and Ukrainian strikes disrupted loading at key ports.4
Output and export data point in opposite directions. Newsweek reported that Russian crude and condensate production climbed by roughly 100,000 bpd in July to just above 9 million bpd. Lighter refinery schedules freed crude that would otherwise have been processed domestically, inflating the export tally. Yet if Russian refiners attempt to recover lost throughput — as the Rigzone forecast implies — more crude returns to domestic use and seaborne flows fall further. Year-to-date seaborne averages remain 280,000 bpd above last year at 3.62 million bpd, Bloomberg data show, but recent weekly figures suggest that gap is closing faster than the annual average implies.4,3,1
The global refining picture provides no offset. S&P Global estimated worldwide refinery runs in July were 7.5 million bpd below year-ago levels, driven by disruptions in Russia and the Middle East. The firm expects global second-half runs to average 80.1 million bpd, 2.4 million bpd below its prior forecast. Evans was unambiguous: there is no spare room in the global system to absorb further shocks.5
Ukrainian attacks have not let up. If strikes maintain their frequency through the winter demand season, throughput stays near multi-decade lows and the supply withdrawal the export ban created does not reverse. Rigzone's forecast, projecting runs near 4 million bpd through December, implies the damage may prove durable rather than acute.1,5
Urals crude was quoted at $84.08 a barrel as of 2026-08-16, a discount of approximately $4.74 to ICE Brent crude front-month at $88.82. That spread has anchored Asian buyer demand despite Western sanctions. But with weekly seaborne shipments at 3.25 million bpd against a year-to-date average of 3.62 million bpd, the volume available at that discount is shrinking.4