China's supply grip explains why clean energy trade barely moved in 2025
BloombergNEF data shows global clean energy shipments rose just 1% to $479bn last year despite surging investment, as Chinese supply concentration caps trade growth.
Global shipping of clean energy products rose just 1% in 2025 to $479bn, according to BloombergNEF's Energy Transition Supply Chains 2026 report, a near-flat result that sits uncomfortably against a year of record investment pledges. The IEA separately forecasts renewable power investment will reach $665bn this year, with $365bn earmarked for solar alone. Electricity grid spending is projected at around $550bn, nearly 20% above last year. Battery storage investment is set to surpass $100bn. Capital is flowing in; goods crossing borders are not.2
Beijing controls the supply chain that explains the divergence. China holds near-total command over solar panels, batteries and the critical minerals feeding both. AI-driven power demand is accelerating project approvals worldwide, but those projects depend on cheap Chinese components, locking in supplier concentration rather than loosening it. "This is part of a longer trend, not just an immediate response to higher oil and gas prices," said Yang Biqing, a China analyst at a London-based energy consultancy. The rest of the world is now reliant on a single exporter to supply its clean energy buildout.3
But that concentration matters for pricing power. Any disruption to Chinese component exports, whether through tariffs, logistics or geopolitical friction, carries consequences for project costs that a diversified supply base would absorb more easily. The 1% trade growth figure masks a market where a single supplier holds the leverage.3
The North American picture shows a parallel kind of concentration risk, playing out in bilateral flows rather than supply chains. The value of energy trade between the United States and Canada fell 11% in 2025 to an estimated $137bn, driven by lower crude prices and reduced volumes rather than a demand collapse, according to the EIA. U.S. energy imports from Canada totaled $111bn last year; exports northbound were just $26bn.5
Crude oil dominates the bilateral flow, accounting for 69% of total U.S.-Canada energy trade value in 2025. The crude component averaged $94.7bn, down 16% from 2024 as prices softened and volumes slipped. U.S. crude imports from Canada averaged 3.9 million barrels per day, 4% below 2024 levels, partly because increased utilization of the Trans Mountain Expansion pipeline is diverting Canadian barrels toward Pacific markets.5
The tariff overlay complicates the relationship further. Since March 6, 2025, Canada's energy exports to the United States have faced a 10% levy, though some crude volumes may qualify for exemption under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Despite the charge, the United States remained Canada's largest crude export destination, a result explained by pipeline geography that leaves producers with few near-term alternatives.5
U.S. total energy exports reached a record 31 quadrillion British thermal units in 2025, 2% above the previous record set in 2024, with net exports hitting 11 quads — 20% above the previous high. Petroleum accounted for 63% of total U.S. energy exports and 83% of imports, underscoring how much of the trade story still runs on fossil fuels.1
Global LNG trade grew 6.3% to a record 437 million tonnes in 2025, with the United States making the largest single contribution, according to the International Gas Union. The contrast with clean energy trade is direct: fossil fuel shipments expanded on diversified supply while clean energy trade stalled on concentrated supply.4
The pattern most worth tracking into 2026 is whether Chinese component exports face new restrictions. If they do, the $479bn figure could contract even as project pipelines grow, a scenario that IEA investment forecasts do not account for.2,3