McKinsey Warns U.S. Utilities to Build Quantum Capabilities as $2.7 Trillion Window Opens
A Utility Dive analysis published Friday found quantum revenue topped $1 billion in 2025 and could reach $4.4 billion by 2028, with McKinsey urging utilities to act now.
Quantum computing companies generated more than $1 billion in revenue worldwide in 2025, and McKinsey projects that figure could reach $4.4 billion by 2028, according to an analysis published Friday (2026-08-14) by Utility Dive. The consultancy's message to power sector executives was unambiguous: the technology remains early-stage, but utilities that delay building capabilities risk losing the window entirely.5
Companies that begin building capabilities and testing use cases now are positioned to capture part of up to $2.7 trillion in economic value that quantum is estimated to generate in the 2030s, McKinsey said. The near-term revenue trajectory and the decade-level value estimate are the two numbers utilities need to weigh together.5
U.S. power systems are simultaneously absorbing a surge in AI-driven electricity demand and integrating large volumes of intermittent renewable generation, a combination that strains classical optimization tools. Goldman Sachs Research projects global data center power demand will rise up to 165% by 2030 compared with 2023 levels. McKinsey separately estimates AI data center capital expenditure at roughly $5.2 trillion through 2030. The grid faces its highest scheduling complexity precisely as demand accelerates.2
The interconnection queue gives the optimization argument a concrete shape. Berkeley Lab found that more than 70% of grid interconnection requests in the United States are ultimately withdrawn because the system cannot handle them. Classical scheduling tools were not designed for this level of variability. Better optimization of existing infrastructure matters as much as building new lines and substations.2
Private capital has already begun routing around constrained interconnection. Amazon paid $650 million for a data center campus that co-locates directly with the Susquehanna nuclear station in Pennsylvania. Bitzero Holdings, a Canadian-listed operator with infrastructure in Norway, signed a binding letter for a 15-year, $2.6 billion lease to secure dedicated power supply. These are bespoke workarounds, not solutions to the underlying complexity of grid dispatch.2
The specific applications most relevant to power operators include grid management, accelerating material discovery for improved battery storage, and enhancing energy forecasting, according to a Power Magazine interview published in May (2026-05-20). Quantum computers potentially use less energy per complex task than classical supercomputers — a meaningful claim for an industry that is simultaneously a major electricity consumer and the system every other sector depends on.1
China is approaching the same problem at state scale. An Oilprice.com report from August 7 (2026-08-07) described Beijing betting on quantum to manage variable renewable inflows and surging data center demand, the same operational stresses confronting U.S. operators. The strategic dimension adds pressure beyond the purely operational efficiency case for U.S. utilities.4
The U.S. policy environment has shifted in parallel. On June 22, 2026, a dedicated quantum executive order followed a June 2025 cybersecurity directive and a June 2026 AI order that added AI-assisted cyber defense provisions. Utility Dive reported that power companies should be in the earliest conversations about standards, given that late engagement has historically meant costly retrofits.3,5
What remains genuinely unclear is the distance between current hardware capabilities and the optimization scenarios utilities actually need to run. Quantum computers at this stage are suited to specific, bounded problem types rather than full grid dispatch, according to the Power Magazine interview from May (2026-05-20). The revenue trajectory McKinsey describes depends on progress in error correction and qubit stability that no firm in the sector has yet attached a reliable delivery date to. That gap between the projected market size and demonstrated hardware performance is the number utilities should press McKinsey on before committing resources.1,5