ICE Endex TTF Front-Month Surges 9.6% as Hormuz Rerouting Costs Lift European Gas Baselines
European gas prices jumped sharply on Monday as Hormuz disruption inflates Atlantic LNG shipping costs and tightens supply routes to the continent.
ICE Endex TTF front-month gas rose 9.59% to €60.82/MWh on Monday (2026-08-10), with the THE M+1 contract gaining 9.55% to €61.37/MWh in the same session. German day-ahead power climbed 3.64% to €135.95/MWh. energyvoice.com reported on July 31 (2026-07-31) that shifts in global energy trade flows were beginning to add pressure to European energy markets, tied to disrupted LNG routes and elevated shipping costs originating in the Gulf.7
The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively shut since the start of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, Reuters reported, blocking a waterway through which roughly a fifth of the world's daily oil and LNG supply passes. Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait have all been forced to redirect export flows.3
By mid-March 2026, the IEA estimated that around 20 million barrels per day had been affected by the shipping collapse in the Hormuz strait, with Gulf producers cutting output by at least 10 million barrels per day. UK wholesale natural gas prices rose by roughly 75% between late February 2026 and March 23 (2026-03-23), according to Financial Times data in the UK Parliament's Commons Library analysis.1
The IMF warned that the conflict was feeding directly into higher prices and weaker growth, placing the United Kingdom among the most exposed European economies. UK petrol prices rose 14 pence per litre — around 10% — over the period covered by the parliamentary analysis.2,1
Rerouting costs are now being priced into contract terms. Reuters reported in late July (2026-07-28) that Saudi Arabia was considering raising crude export prices for Asia by up to $5 per barrel on cargoes shipped via the Suez Canal, to reflect elevated Red Sea transit charges driven by Houthi maritime activity. One Reuters source estimated that rerouting a single cargo could add $10 million to its cost. Saudi Aramco has yet to confirm any formal price adjustment.6
The IEA is planning to recommend a release of 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves, the largest such move in the agency's history, to help absorb the supply shock. Whether that release would meaningfully offset the shipping-cost and route-dislocation dynamics behind Monday's (2026-08-10) European gas moves is uncertain, since the mechanism affecting LNG cargo economics extends beyond crude balances.3
In Asia-Pacific, total energy losses from the disruption have reached an estimated $25 billion, according to a June 29 (2026-06-29) report. Freight is a central transmission channel: more than 90% of heavy vehicles across the region run on diesel, meaning bunker fuel cost increases ripple through supply chains rapidly.5
Container shipping has shown visible stress. The Port of Los Angeles recorded loaded imports of 449,370 twenty-foot equivalent units in May 2026, up 26% from a year earlier, as shippers front-loaded volumes ahead of anticipated cost escalation. Oilprice.com reported in June 2026 that soaring marine fuel costs had already pulled the peak cargo shipping season forward to spring.4
Russian supply has offered little buffer. energyvoice.com reported that attacks on Russian shipping in the Black Sea have constrained Moscow's crude exports, pushing flows onto longer northern routes and removing another source of supply flexibility from European market calculations.7
ICE Brent crude front-month was at $87.96 per barrel as of August 11 (2026-08-11). Qatar's role as the world's largest LNG exporter means further disruption to its export flows would transmit directly into Asian JKM pricing and, through the Atlantic LNG arbitrage, back into ICE Endex TTF front-month. Qatar produces roughly 30% of global helium supply, which has also been affected by the regional disruption — a measure of how deeply the Hormuz shock has reached into Qatari industrial output. With the Saudi crude surcharge unconfirmed and the IEA reserve release not yet formalised, European gas traders have little clarity to anchor on as the autumn heating season approaches.1,3,6