Gulf shipping threat worst since Iran war began, security firms warn
Analysts tracking vessels say risks in the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea hit new peak after reports of another tanker strike off Oman.
Security and vessel-tracking firms warned that threats to shipping in the Gulf and the Red Sea have escalated to the worst safety situation since the Iran war began, after Gulf News reported on Monday (2026-08-10) that Iran hit another tanker in the Persian Gulf off the coast of Oman, setting it on fire. The information had not been independently verified. ICE Brent crude front-month stood at $85.00 per barrel as of 1252 GMT on Monday (2026-08-10), up 0.33 percent.8
The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint. Roughly one-fifth of global petroleum liquids pass through the 21-mile-wide channel. Analysts told the BBC during the week of August 3 that the combined threat environment had reached a new peak. Vessel traffic at both Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait collapsed on Wednesday (2026-08-05), according to Rigzone.7,1
The deterioration followed a July 22 blockade announcement by the Houthis in the Red Sea. After that declaration, the Saudi-flagged tanker WAFA reportedly U-turned and headed back north through Saudi coastal waters, where missiles struck the vessel anyway, hundreds of kilometers from the declared blockade zone, Windward analysts told Rigzone. The incident showed the threat envelope had expanded well beyond the geographic boundaries stated by the Houthis.7,4
Saudi Arabia and other major Gulf producers responded by sharply curtailing loadings from Persian Gulf terminals. Oil loadings by Saudi Arabia and other producers inside the Gulf remained subdued as shipowners continued to avoid Hormuz transits. No large tankers have been seen berthed at the kingdom's top Gulf installations in recent weeks, according to Rigzone on July 30.5
In the days before the Houthi blockade announcement, Saudi Arabia had exported record volumes from its Red Sea terminals, shipping out 5.9 million barrels per day from the two Yanbu terminals in the week ending July 17, according to tanker tracking cited by Rigzone. That figure underscores how quickly the kingdom redirected its export strategy in response to the escalating threat picture.4
The military stalemate between the United States and Iran has produced what analysts at CSIS described on August 5 as a period of "no war, no peace" with profound economic consequences. Intelligence sharing and the provision of military equipment have prolonged the conflict without resolution. Shipping has borne the brunt.6,2
Iran initially threatened to close Hormuz entirely in response to US and Israeli strikes that began on February 28. Negotiations between Tehran and Washington led Iran to ease restrictions, and shipping resumed. Brent crude fell to its lowest level since the day before the war began, dropping more than 3 percent to hover below $74.50 per barrel at 0820 GMT on June 24, according to the International Business Times. The relief proved temporary.3,2
The renewed deterioration raises questions about how much risk premium the market is pricing for a Hormuz closure. Brent has climbed $10.50 per barrel since late June, yet analysts warn that a full blockade would likely drive prices far higher. The US benchmark, NYMEX WTI front-month, traded at $79.28 per barrel as of 1252 GMT on Monday (2026-08-10), down 0.24 percent.3,8
The dual pressure from Houthi activity in the Red Sea and Iranian actions in the Gulf has created a pincer effect on Middle Eastern crude exports. Shipowners now face elevated risk in both regions simultaneously. The next signal is whether any major charterer publicly withdraws from Gulf loadings. So far the disruption has been visible only in vessel tracking data, not in formal announcements.7