Shell Books Near-Record Quarterly Profit From Iran War Volatility, Maintains $3bn Buyback
Shell's net profit more than doubled year-on-year in the second quarter as Hormuz disruptions handed its oil traders an exceptional windfall.
Shell reported second-quarter net profit of $9.84 billion on Thursday (2026-07-30), more than double the same period last year and ahead of analyst forecasts, as extreme oil price volatility from the Iran conflict generated conditions its trading arm could exploit. The Anglo-Dutch major said it would maintain its $3 billion quarterly share buyback programme.6,5
Half-year underlying earnings reached $16.75 billion, a 70% surge year-on-year and the company's best six-month performance in four years. Chief Executive Wael Sawan made clear he expected more of the same. "Volatility is the new normal," he told CNBC on Thursday (2026-07-30).5,6
The profits rode an oil price rally that pushed ICE Brent crude front-month for September delivery to an intraday high of $101.01 on Thursday (2026-07-23), up more than 7% on the day. Yemen's Houthis struck two Saudi oil tankers that same day, widening disruptions to shipping across both the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz and sending Brent above $100 for the first time in nearly two months.3,4
By that point Brent had climbed roughly 20% in approximately two weeks as US-Iran peace talks broke down, supply disruptions mounted and Iran's Revolutionary Guard declared the Strait of Hormuz closed. US airstrikes on Iranian targets deepened the risk picture. With July still running, the month-to-date price gain had reached nearly 30%.2,1,3
But the market gave back ground as the month closed. ICE Brent's most active October contract settled at $87.93 a barrel on Friday (2026-07-31), up 1.2% on the day, closing out July with a nearly 24% monthly gain — the biggest since March. The expiring September contract settled at $90.12 on the same day. WTI for September delivery added 1.3% to $84.67.7
By Monday (2026-08-10), ICE Brent crude front-month was trading at $84.72, with prices having first softened on Thursday (2026-07-30) as investors weighed reported signs of progress in US-Iran-Oman diplomatic talks. Analysts said any confirmed peace agreement and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would likely weigh on crude prices. No agreement had materialised as of Monday (2026-08-10).8
Shell described the oil and gas environment as one of "severe disruption." Its traders capitalised on elevated prices and volatile swings to deliver the company's best quarterly performance in four years, even as the broader supply picture stayed unsettled.5
Goldman Sachs expected crude to retain most of its July gains through August, citing declining global inventories, reduced Middle Eastern output, seasonal summer travel demand and a sharp slowdown in strategic petroleum reserve releases. That outlook leaned on the diplomatic picture staying deadlocked.4
The Caspian Pipeline Consortium provided another moving part. The CPC was reported to be continuing oil operations after discussions on Friday (2026-07-31) about whether to indefinitely halt shipments, according to people familiar with the matter. That outcome removed one potential additional supply shock from a market already priced for disruption.7
Shell's decision to maintain its $3 billion quarterly buyback reflects management confidence that the price environment generating near-record profits persists. ICE Brent crude front-month was trading at $84.72 on Monday (2026-08-10), 16 dollars below July's intraday peak and still well above pre-conflict levels. The pace of US-Iran-Oman diplomatic talks is what traders are calibrating against that figure in the sessions ahead.6,8