Wood Mackenzie Flags Europe's Storage Shortfall as Winter Supply Risk Builds
Europe is unlikely to hit its 80% winter storage target as Asian LNG competition and early seasonal draws squeeze the restocking window.
ICE Endex TTF front-month settled Sunday (2026-08-09) at €55.50/MWh, with storage concerns keeping European gas traders on edge as injection season enters its final months. David Lewis, senior research analyst at Wood Mackenzie, has described Europe's current inventory position as a "very risky situation." The data back him up.6
Equinor CEO Anders Opedal sharpened the picture on Wednesday (2026-07-22), warning that the region may fail to reach the EU's 80% winter storage target as competition for spot LNG cargoes intensifies.6 That warning followed an unusual development earlier in the season: Bloomberg reported that European inventories recorded several days of withdrawals in mid-May (2026-05-19), weeks before seasonal draws are typically expected.2
Europe is losing the contest for spot LNG to Asia. Asian buyers are outpacing European importers on price for available cargoes, Investing.com reported.5 China's hydropower shortfalls in the north are amplifying the pressure, with Beijing potentially needing additional coal and gas-fired generation to compensate, pulling supply toward Asian ports and away from Atlantic Basin terminals.5
U.S. LNG exports reached 15.0 Bcf/d in 2025, EIA data cited by Wood Mackenzie show, up from just 0.5 Bcf/d in 2016. American export capacity has become central to European import planning. But LNG cargoes follow price, not geography. When Asian spot premiums widen, cargo diversions follow.4
NYMEX Henry Hub front-month was quoted Monday (2026-08-10) at $2.74/MMBtu, well below the levels that would dampen the Atlantic LNG arbitrage. Wood Mackenzie expects Henry Hub prices to approach $5/MMBtu by 2035 as AI data centre power demand and additional export infrastructure reshape the domestic market.4 Until that structural repricing materializes, cheap U.S. feedgas keeps the transatlantic LNG trade attractive — but the benefit flows to buyers that can outbid competitors. European utilities are often not the winners when Asian demand runs hot.4
LSEG data through early June (2026-06-03) showed average gas production across the U.S. Lower 48 at 109.0 Bcf/d, below 109.7 Bcf/d in May and December 2025's monthly record of 110.6 Bcf/d.3 Any sustained decline through late summer would tighten feedgas volumes available to LNG terminals, potentially curbing the export flows Europe is counting on for restocking.3
On the U.S. domestic side, working gas in storage was running 141 Bcf above year-ago levels as of mid-May (2026-05-21), about 8% above the same period in 2025.1 A weekly draw of 52 Bcf for that period came in well below the five-year average withdrawal of 168 Bcf, reflecting mild weather that allowed above-average stockpiling.1
Charlie Riedl, executive director of the Center for Liquefied Natural Gas in Washington, said U.S. export capacity could reach 40 to 45 Bcf/d by 2050, more than tripling 2026 rates.4 LNG exports already represent just over 15% of total U.S. gas demand, Riedl noted, a share that ties Henry Hub prices more directly to global market movements than at any point in the past decade.4
JKM Asian LNG front-month stood Monday (2026-08-10) at $21.11/MMBtu. At those prices, Asian buyers can consistently outbid European utilities for spot LNG cargoes, and every diversion east narrows the already thin margin between where European storage is heading and where it needs to be before winter.5,6