Asia-Pacific Airlines Face Prolonged Jet Fuel Crunch as Hormuz Shutdown Enters Fifth Month
Months after the Strait of Hormuz closed, Asia-Pacific carriers are still hunting for jet fuel while Europe has largely stabilised its supply chain.
Europe held roughly 38 million barrels of jet fuel at the start of June, equivalent to around 30 days of regional demand — a buffer that helped the continent sidestep the worst of the shortages that many had feared heading into summer.8
Asia-Pacific has not been as fortunate. The region's refineries depend heavily on Gulf crude to produce jet fuel, and the U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran that effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz severed that feedstock link. One bank estimated the supply gap at 800,000 barrels per day in May alone, as Asian refiners struggled to replace lost Gulf crude with alternative grades.2
The Hormuz closure removed roughly a fifth of the world's daily oil and LNG supply from normal trade routes at a stroke. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait and other top Middle Eastern producers found their export arteries blocked, while observable global oil stocks fell by a cumulative 246 million barrels across March and April combined — a 129 million-barrel draw in March followed by another 117 million barrels in April, equal to roughly 3.9 million barrels per day of net depletion, according to OGJ data.4,3
Australia moved quickly to plug gaps in domestic aviation supply. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced on 18 May 2026 that the government had secured three shipments of jet fuel totalling more than 600,000 barrels — around 100 million litres — sourced from China and due to arrive from early June. Albanese also confirmed a separate deal for 38,500 tonnes of agricultural-grade urea from Brunei.1
The Chinese cargoes offered near-term breathing room for Australian carriers. But 600,000 barrels is a partial measure against a structural shortfall, not a lasting fix, and the government acknowledged further procurement would be needed beyond those initial deliveries. Australia's dependence on imported refined products — long flagged as a strategic vulnerability — has been exposed in precisely the way energy security analysts warned it would be.1
Europe's more comfortable position through summer reflects faster-than-expected adaptation rather than any easing of the Hormuz disruption itself. Rigzone reported in late June that surging local refinery output and a rapid pivot to non-Middle East import sources helped the continent avert the fuel chaos that early forecasts projected. Refiners accelerated runs and procurement teams rerouted supply chains toward Atlantic Basin and Asian suppliers not dependent on Gulf crude.5
That adaptation was not a given. The Economist noted in May 2026 that Persian Gulf to Europe journey times for oil tankers are measured in days, while re-routing flows and certifying new supply relationships takes weeks. The speed of that repositioning surprised many early forecasters and bought European carriers enough time to build stocks before peak summer travel demand arrived.2,7
In Asia-Pacific, the adjustment has been slower and more uneven. Asian-Power reported that the region's total energy-related losses had reached $25 billion as the Middle East conflict dragged on, with businesses facing compounding pressure across cost, supply and inflation channels. More than 90% of heavy vehicles in the region run on diesel, according to analyst Symons, meaning fuel cost increases transmit quickly through freight networks and into broader input costs across manufacturing and retail supply chains.6
The IEA is planning to recommend the release of 400 million barrels from strategic reserves — the largest such action in the agency's history — to help absorb the supply shock. Whether member governments follow through and at what pace will shape how quickly Asia-Pacific airlines and other fuel-intensive operators see any relief.3
ICE Brent crude front-month was last quoted at $82.38 per barrel as of the 2026-08-09 close, with Dubai crude at $78.38 per barrel on the same date. JKM, the Asian LNG benchmark, sat at $21.11 per MMBtu. The Brent-Dubai spread matters for Asian refiners because Dubai-linked crude is the more relevant marker for Gulf feedstock replacement calculations.
The contrast between Europe's relative stability and Asia-Pacific's ongoing scramble points to a deeper asymmetry: European refiners had more alternative crude sources within reach and more existing infrastructure to process non-Gulf grades at scale. Asian refiners were more narrowly configured around Gulf crude, and rerouting feedstock supply while simultaneously competing with European buyers for Atlantic Basin barrels has been both expensive and slow.
What airlines and fuel procurement desks in the region are watching now is the IEA reserve release decision — and whether any diplomatic movement on the Hormuz situation changes the calculus before the heaviest corporate travel season in Q4 begins.3