Global clean energy trade hits $479bn in 2025 as China tightens grip on supply chains
Clean energy equipment shipments rose just 1% last year, but Beijing's near-monopoly on components is reshaping who profits from the transition.
Global shipments of clean energy products rose 1% in 2025 to $479bn, according to BloombergNEF's Energy Transition Supply Chains 2026 report — a modest gain that masks a sharpening geographic concentration in who actually builds the hardware.1
The growth is slowing even as demand accelerates. BloombergNEF's data show the increase came in at just 1%, a fraction of the double-digit expansion rates the sector posted in earlier years, and it lands as the IEA predicts renewable power investment will hit $665bn this year, with $365bn earmarked for solar alone.1
That gap between investment and trade growth points to where value is accumulating. China's clean energy dominance is growing, buoyed by skyrocketing energy needs and future projected demands from the artificial intelligence boom, with projects getting greenlit at a breakneck pace. Those projects depend on cheap Chinese clean energy components.2
"The whole world is now depending on China to supply their clean energy revolution," said Yang Biqing, a China analyst at London-based consultancy, adding that "this is part of a longer trend, not just an immediate response to higher oil and gas prices."2
The trade figures arrive against a backdrop of uneven emissions progress. Global coal use hit a record in 2025 even as coal power declined in the biggest markets, with U.S. coal-fired generation jumping 13.1% to 804 terawatt-hours and domestic coal consumption rising 10.4% to 8.7 exajoules.4
U.S. electricity demand rose 3% in 2025, lifted by data centres and industrial activity, and that 13% increase in coal-fired generation contributed significantly to the emissions increase, according to Forbes reporting. That dynamic complicates any linear narrative about the pace of the transition.3
Coal generation in China and India fell 3.0% to 1,464 terawatt-hours, yet because those two countries produce nearly 69% of the world's coal-fired electricity, those declines were not enough to offset the U.S. rebound. Coal generation across Asia Pacific declined just 1.2%, while Europe posted a 3.4% decrease.4
The EU's coal generation fell 3.6% and now accounts for only 2.6% of global output, a structural shift that leaves the bloc increasingly exposed to gas price moves. ICE Endex TTF front-month settled at €55.50/MWh at Friday's close (2026-08-08), with European power benchmarks also reflecting weekend illiquidity.4
Grid investment is where the next bottleneck appears. Electricity grids are set to attract around $550bn this year, almost a 20% increase on the prior year's figure, while battery storage investment is set to surpass $100bn, according to IEA projections.1
But those dollars increasingly flow through Chinese supply chains. Beijing has near-total control over the refining of critical minerals and the manufacturing of solar cells, battery cathodes and wind turbine components, which means the investment boom and the trade numbers are becoming decoupled.2
U.S. coal consumption remains about 62% below its 2005 peak, and coal-fired generation is approximately 63% below its 2007 high, so the 2025 rebound is off a much-reduced base. Still, a 13% jump in coal generation in a single year signals that demand growth is outpacing the transition in the world's largest economy.4
The unresolved risk for traders is whether the 1% trade growth figure marks a plateau or a pause. If Chinese component prices keep falling and Beijing keeps its export controls in reserve, the $479bn number could expand even as Western project developers find themselves paying a China premium.1
The IEA's $550bn grid forecast, up roughly 20%, suggests the market is pricing in a longer buildout period — one that favours gas in the interim. JKM settled at $21.11/MMBtu at Friday's close (2026-08-08), and any further supply chain concentration in Beijing only tightens the squeeze on Asian buyers already competing for LNG cargoes.1