Macquarie Forecasts U.S. Crude Build as WTI Slides Below $78
Macquarie's crude build forecast, based on a domestic supply recovery, reinforces the bearish case for NYMEX WTI front-month at $77.95.
Macquarie strategists forecast a build in U.S. crude inventories in the next EIA weekly petroleum status report, according to a note sent to Rigzone on Wednesday (2026-08-05), adding to pressure on NYMEX WTI front-month contracts already sitting at $77.95 per barrel as of Friday morning (2026-08-07).4
The supply forecast rests on a projected bounce-back in implied domestic output. Macquarie's model shows implied domestic supply (production plus adjustments and transfers) recovering by 0.9 million barrels per day after recent weakness. The strategists warned that cargo timing remains a source of potential volatility in the weekly crude balance, suggesting the build call carries execution risk even if the directional read proves correct.4
The prior EIA report, released July 29 (2026) and covering the week ending July 24 (2026), showed U.S. commercial crude inventories down 7.2 million barrels to 404.5 million barrels — a draw that had offered brief price support. A year earlier, on July 25, 2025, the same measure stood at 426.7 million barrels, leaving current stocks well below year-ago levels even before any build materializes.4,3
The product-side picture looks different. Macquarie expects draws across gasoline, distillate and jet fuel of 2.2, 2.0 and 0.6 million barrels respectively, with implied demand for those three products running at roughly 14.8 million barrels per day. That is a solid seasonal rate. But the strategists' own model has crude supply outrunning the product demand signal on the inventory side, which is what produces the net crude build call.4
ICE Brent crude front-month sat at $83.25 per barrel as of Friday (2026-08-07), down 0.68 percent, while NYMEX WTI front-month fell a narrower 0.18 percent to $77.95. The WTI discount to Brent of around five dollars points to U.S.-specific supply pressure rather than a broad global crude selloff. [Live prices]
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve complicates the supply arithmetic. SPR stocks stood at 307.7 million barrels as of July 29 (2026), against 402.7 million barrels on July 25, 2025, a reduction of roughly 95 million barrels over the year. In March (2026-03-11), U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright announced the DOE would release 172 million barrels from the SPR as part of a wider international plan. Exactly how much of that scheduled release is still flowing into commercial stocks is part of what makes the weekly cargo timing call difficult to pin down.4
The EIA's own production outlook reinforces the supply-heavy tone. In its June (2026) short-term energy outlook, the agency raised its U.S. crude production forecast for both 2026 and 2027, though U.S. production has never averaged 14 million barrels per day or above on either an annual or monthly basis, the EIA noted. Global oil output is expected to return to pre-Iran conflict levels by end-2026, the EIA added.1,2
That projection compounds the domestic picture. If production rises at home while international output simultaneously recovers, product demand, healthy as it is this summer, is unlikely to absorb the combined addition. The bearish supply setup then extends well beyond any single weekly report.
The next EIA release will test Macquarie's build call directly. A surprise draw, driven by cargo delays or a production miss versus the 0.9 million barrel per day implied recovery, could force a fast reassessment of the current bearish positioning. Until then, the cargo schedule is the variable traders need to track, not the product demand print.4