Macquarie Forecasts 4.8 Million Barrel U.S. Product Draw Ahead of EIA Weekly Report
Gasoline, distillate and jet fuel stocks are forecast to drain while crude inventories rebuild, splitting the petroleum balance at near-seasonal lows.
Macquarie strategists, in a pre-release note sent to Rigzone on 2026-08-05, forecast combined draws of 4.8 million barrels across U.S. gasoline, distillate and jet fuel in the EIA's weekly petroleum status report covering the week ending July 31 (2026-07-31): gasoline down 2.2 million barrels, distillate off 2.0 million barrels and jet fuel falling 0.6 million barrels. The bank simultaneously called a crude inventory build for the same period, creating a divergence between tightening product balances and a rebuilding crude pile.5
A split forecast matters for where price pressure registers. Macquarie's call means the stress shows up in refinery margins and regional product prices before it appears in headline crude balances — traders watching either side of the market will get different signals from the same weekly report.5
Macquarie's model put implied demand for the three products at roughly 14.8 million barrels per day over the survey week.5 Implied domestic crude supply was expected to bounce back at 0.9 million barrels per day week-on-week. The firm noted that cargo timing remains a source of potential volatility in the crude balance reading.5
ICE Brent crude front-month was at $79.33 a barrel and NYMEX WTI front-month at $74.90 a barrel as of 2026-08-06 at 01:04 UTC, with NYMEX RBOB gasoline front-month at $2.82 a gallon at the same time, all before the U.S. market open.5
Those prices reflect a crude balance that has been drawing down steadily through the summer. The EIA's release on July 29 (2026-07-29), covering data through July 24 (2026-07-24), put commercial crude stocks excluding the SPR at 404.5 million barrels, down from 411.7 million barrels for the week ending July 17 (2026-07-17), and well below the 426.7 million barrels held in the comparable 2025 period.5
SPR volumes have fallen faster. The reserve stood at 307.7 million barrels for the week ending July 24 (2026-07-24), against 311.4 million for the week ending July 17 (2026-07-17) and 402.7 million in the same 2025 period.5 Energy Secretary Chris Wright announced on March 11 (2026-03-11) that the Department of Energy would release 172 million barrels from the SPR as part of an IEA-coordinated response.5
The drawdown has been persistent. EIA data released on June 24 (2026-06-24) showed a 6.1 million barrel crude draw for the week ending June 19 (2026-06-19), bringing commercial stockpiles to 412.1 million barrels, 7% below the five-year seasonal average.3 The following week through June 26 (2026-06-26) produced another 3.8 million barrel draw to 408.4 million barrels, again 7% below the five-year norm, per EIA data released July 1 (2026-07-01).4
The supply backdrop is shaped by the Strait of Hormuz. In its June 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA estimated Middle East production shut-ins at 11.3 million barrels per day in May, forecast continued disruptions of 11.34 million barrels per day in June, then projected easing to 10.11 million barrels per day in the third quarter and 5.70 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.2
Commerzbank commodity analyst Norman Liebke, writing in June 2026, argued that crude stocks had proved more resilient than the disruption scale implied because inventories were lasting longer than expected, even as product balances eroded more rapidly.1 His read pointed toward an eventual convergence between the two, with products showing stress first.
But a crude build against product draws shifts where the argument lands. If the upcoming EIA release confirms even a modest crude stock increase alongside the product draws, bearish crude traders will have a concrete datapoint while product markets absorb the tighter balance.5
The contrarian case rests on geopolitics. Dubai crude front-month carried a bullish signal driven by geopolitical factors as of 2026-08-06, and NYMEX RBOB gasoline front-month showed a supply-driven bullish lean despite the broader oil complex sitting marginally lower. Both depend on Hormuz disruptions persisting longer than the EIA's fourth-quarter projections — the agency's own forecast assumes a return of 5.70 million barrels per day of supply in Q4 2026, a recovery that, if it arrives on schedule, materially changes the product draw outlook.2,1