Colombia Gas Discovery Arrives as El Niño Threatens Widening Supply Gap
New offshore find could ease Colombia's looming gas shortfall, but production timing and El Niño risks cloud the outlook.
Colombia's offshore natural gas sector received a boost in recent weeks with a new discovery that could help bridge a widening domestic supply gap, even as analysts warn a potential Super El Niño in the second half of 2026 threatens to push the country into an energy crisis. The find adds to a string of recent exploration successes across South America's Atlantic margin, where Petronas has also announced multiple discoveries offshore Suriname.5,4
Colombian production is expected to continue until 2039, when analysts forecast that economically recoverable natural gas will be depleted. Those same dynamics are driving declining output and a widening supply gap that will worsen if El Niño arrives during the second half of 2026, according to reporting from Oilprice.com.5
A Super El Niño would strain Colombia's hydro-dependent power grid precisely when domestic gas supplies are tightening. The country has been wrestling with how to replace declining output from mature fields, and each new discovery buys time before import dependence grows. But the gap between discovery and first gas is typically measured in years, not months.5
The Colombian news follows a pattern across the region. Petronas announced two new discoveries and a successful appraisal well in Block 52 off Suriname's Atlantic coast, bringing its total to eight successful wells in the block. The Malaysian state firm said it expects to make a final investment decision on a development there, as quoted by Reuters.4,3
South America's Atlantic margin is emerging as a genuine exploration hotspot. Yet the commercial realities remain sobering. Argentina's first LNG export project has secured a 10-year marine services contract with Adani Ports, committing USD 70 million to expand global marine operations, marking the Indian port operator's entry into the South American market.2
For Colombia specifically, whether new supply can arrive before the projected 2039 depletion date is far from settled. The country's gas fields are aging, and the supply-demand balance is tightening each year. A major El Niño event would force the country to choose between curbing industrial demand and accelerating LNG imports.5
The regional context matters for global LNG balances. As South American producers develop their offshore resources, they reduce the need for Atlantic-basin imports. But none of these projects will be online before the peak El Niño risk window. The market response has been muted so far, with no major price reaction in the region's benchmarks.4
Comparable plays elsewhere show how long the road is. Newfoundland and Labrador is trying to launch a new LNG export industry on Canada's east coast, where the Jeanne d'Arc Basin holds an estimated 27.6 trillion cubic feet of recoverable natural gas, worth about $560 billion at current European benchmark prices, according to government estimates. The province faces major commercial and technical hurdles.6
That scale puts Colombia's find in perspective. LNG Canada Phase 1 in Kitimat is Canada's first large-scale LNG export project, licensed to export about 1.84 billion cubic feet per day. A development of that size requires years of engineering, financing and construction before the first cargo sails.6
The broader Atlantic basin is seeing a wave of exploration activity. ExxonMobil and QatarEnergy have signed a memorandum of understanding with Egypt to assess developing Cyprus gas discoveries through North African infrastructure. Earlier finds in the eastern Mediterranean, including the Glaucus reservoir with an estimated 3.7 trillion cubic feet of gas-in-place, show the potential scale, but also the complexity of bringing those resources to market.1
For traders, the Colombian discovery is a reminder that Atlantic basin supply is being replenished, but not quickly enough to shift near-term balances. El Niño development in the coming months, and Colombia's ability to move any new discovery toward production before its domestic supply crunch deepens, remain the key variables in a country where gas has become as much a political question as an economic one.5