US LNG Exports Fill Hormuz Supply Gap as Asian and European Buyers Compete for Spot Cargoes
Hormuz disruptions cut roughly 20% of global LNG supply in 2026, forcing Asian buyers onto the spot market in direct competition with European storage buyers.
ICE Endex TTF front-month gas fell 2.87% to €55.92 per megawatt-hour on Tuesday (2026-08-04), while JKM Asian LNG spot held at $21.17 per million British thermal units. The narrow spread signals that US cargoes in transit are not flowing decisively in either direction — a symptom of competing demand pulls that extend well beyond this session's moves.4,3
Global LNG trade hit a record 437 million tonnes in 2025, up 6.3% from 2024, the International Gas Union reported. The United States drove the bulk of that growth. US LNG exports climbed 26% to 15.1 billion cubic feet per day, according to EIA data, pushing America's share of global supply from 21% to 26%. Qatar and Australia remained the second and third largest exporters, and together with the US they held 63% of global trade, up from 60% in 2024.3,4
That concentration has become a pressure point in 2026. Qatari exports fell after the Strait of Hormuz closed on February 28 (2026-02-28), removing roughly 20% of global LNG supply, the EIA said. Asian buyers who had absorbed more than 80% of Qatari volumes in 2025 are now bidding on the global spot market alongside European utilities seeking to refill storage.4
The Strait reopened in late June (2026-06-25), bringing relief to crude prices and easing immediate trader anxiety, Oil & Gas 360 reported. But an EIA assessment published July 14 (2026-07-14) still treated the disruption as an active constraint, noting that Qatari flows had not returned to historical norms. Until they do, competition for non-Qatari spot cargoes continues.2,4
The US is the principal supplier filling that gap. Domestic gas production reached a record 103.9 Bcf/d in 2025, up more than 4% year-on-year, according to Forbes. A US LNG cargo can be redirected while it is at sea, sent east if JKM pays premium or diverted toward European terminals if TTF firms. That optionality makes the Atlantic LNG arbitrage a live routing decision on every voyage and positions US exporters as the default swing supplier when a Qatari shortfall opens.5,6
China's demand behaviour adds another variable. Wood Mackenzie analysts said in June 2026 (2026-06-05) that China is shifting away from its role as a steady LNG buyer and becoming a price-responsive balancer, buying more when prices fall and pulling back when they rise. Where China once smoothed regional spot volatility, it now risks amplifying it. A Qatari supply shortfall is precisely the kind of moment when Chinese discretion changes the spot clearing price for everyone else.1
Russian LNG compounded the supply picture. Russian exports fell 8%, or 0.4 Bcf/d, in 2025 — the largest volumetric decline of any exporter — following EU sanctions, EIA data show. European buyers have not found a like-for-like replacement, which increases their reliance on Atlantic spot supply and makes their pull on US cargoes persistent rather than occasional.4
The structural shift is clear in the trade data. Interregional LNG trade grew roughly 6.5% in 2025 while interregional pipeline flows contracted about 3.6%, according to Forbes. Gas trade is increasingly seaborne, with pipeline volumes losing ground and spot competition between basins setting marginal supply prices more often than long-term contracts do.5
The pace at which Qatar restores throughput through the strait remains the clearest near-term variable. JKM at $21.17 per million British thermal units and ICE Endex TTF front-month at €55.92 per megawatt-hour keep the trans-oceanic arbitrage open but not extreme. If Qatari volumes recover faster than expected, Asian buyers ease off the spot market and US cargoes tilt west. If recovery stalls, or if China turns opportunistic on any price dip, the competition for available cargoes tightens further and the spread narrows.4,1