OPEC+ Closes Out Its 2023 Output Cut Reversal as Kuwait Production Rebounds Sharply
Seven core OPEC+ members approved a sixth consecutive 188,000 bpd hike for September, formally completing the rollback of voluntary cuts that had been in place since 2023.
Seven core OPEC+ members agreed on Sunday (2026-08-02) to raise collective output by 188,000 barrels per day from September, completing the phased reversal of a 1.65 million bpd voluntary production cut the group first adopted in 2023. The participating countries are Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman, according to CNBC.5
Kuwait's production numbers illustrate both the scale of the rebound and how unevenly it has played out across the group. Reuters, citing unnamed sources, reported that Kuwait pumped 1.971 million bpd in July, up from 1.65 million bpd in June and nearly three and a half times the 580,000 bpd recorded in May. Those three monthly readings capture much of the arc of the OPEC+ reversal in a single country.4
In theory, OPEC+ should collectively produce 1.65 million bpd more in September than it did in 2023 when the cuts were first agreed. In practice, the group's actual output tells a different story. OPEC figures show average production of 33.19 million bpd in April, down sharply from 42.77 million bpd in February, as Gulf members cut exports in response to broader disruptions. Whether the September quota translates into actual barrels depends on factors some members cannot control.1
Kazakhstan is the clearest example. Ukrainian drone strikes on the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, which handles roughly 80 percent of Kazakhstan's oil exports, have repeatedly suspended flows through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium. The disruptions forced Kazakhstan to slash output to around 1 million bpd in late July, down from over 2 million bpd in June, according to oilprice.com. Raising a quota for a country that cannot physically export is a different matter than raising production.4
The September hike also closes out the reversal of only one layer of the group's output management. A separate reduction of around 2 million bpd agreed in 2022 remains in place and is currently scheduled to hold through the end of 2026, according to Livemint. The UAE, which was part of the 2023 arrangement but has since exited the production management arrangement, is no longer a participant in the current round of increases.3
Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad Energy, told Reuters that a pause in the monthly hike schedule remained a feasible option heading into the September decision. He also flagged the next problem: managing the surplus that could emerge as export flows normalize. Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst cited by Daily Sabah, argued that increasing targets has become less meaningful for many members because a decline in production capacity means they cannot reach their official quotas anyway.2,3
Leon made a blunter point in an earlier round of the same discussion. "An OPEC+ production increase means very little while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed," he said, a comment that applies equally to the September move. Production quotas set in Vienna do not move oil that cannot reach a tanker.1
ICE Brent crude front-month held at $85.16 per barrel early Tuesday (2026-08-04), up 0.35 percent on the session, a modest gain that suggests traders are not reading the completed reversal as a bearish supply shock. WTI crude front-month was flat at $81.16 per barrel at the same time. The muted price reaction is consistent with a market that has absorbed six consecutive monthly quota increases without being fully convinced actual output will follow.5
DNB Carnegie analysts warned that OPEC+ now faces potentially difficult talks over new production quotas starting next year, once the 2023 layer is formally behind it. The group will need to agree on how to handle the separate 2022 reductions that remain in place, and on whether any members who have been chronically above or below their quotas will face formal adjustments.2
For now, the forward indicator to track is how much of Kuwait's recovery — from 580,000 bpd in May to nearly 2 million bpd in July — can be sustained, and whether Kazakhstan's Novorossiysk disruptions ease enough to let that country begin closing the gap between its quota and its actual exports. Those two numbers will do more to define OPEC+'s real September output than any decision taken at a weekend meeting.4,2