Russia Takes 55% of India's Crude Imports in July, Setting an All-Time Volume Record
Kpler data show Russia's share of Indian crude hit 2.8 million bpd in July, with both Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb keeping Middle Eastern routes uncertain.
India's crude oil imports from Russia climbed to 2.8 million barrels per day in July (2026-07-31), a new all-time high and up from the previous record of 2.7 million bpd set in June, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Kpler and cited by the Times of India. Russian oil accounted for 55.5% of India's total crude intake, with overall imports edging up to just over 5 million bpd last month.6
Shipping disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait are driving the concentration. Russian crude loaded via Baltic or Arctic routes sidesteps both chokepoints, and analysts cited by OilPrice.com say Moscow will remain at the centre of India's import slate as long as conditions at both waterways stay uncertain.6
ICE Brent front-month was trading at $82.90 per barrel on Monday (2026-08-03). That is well below the more than $114 per barrel India's crude basket touched in April when Iran began restricting Hormuz passage, according to the Atlantic Council. Even so, costs remain high for a country that imports roughly 90% of its oil. Brent had touched $90 per barrel as recently as Monday (2026-07-20), LiveMint reported, adding pressure at a time when the import bill was already at record levels.1,4
India's crude import bill reached $49.8 billion in the April-June quarter, government data showed, a 60% jump from a year earlier, even as the volume purchased fell to around 60 million tonnes from 62.6 million tonnes in the same period of 2025. The war in West Asia stripped out the discounts that had previously cushioned Indian refiners, and that single quarter's spend already equalled 40% of India's entire FY26 crude import bill, LiveMint reported.4
The macro exposure is acute. C. Uday Bhaskar, director of the Society for Policy Studies, has said every one-dollar rise in average annual crude prices adds $1.5 to $2 billion to India's annual import bill. Rating agency ICRA estimates a $10-per-barrel increase raises India's net oil import bill by $13 to $14 billion and widens the current account deficit by around 0.3% of GDP.4,2
Russian crude has partly absorbed that pressure. Urals was quoted at $84.56 per barrel on Monday (2026-08-03). India has continued purchasing at high volumes even after the U.S. let the waiver allowing the purchase of Russian oil loaded on tankers expire on June 17 (2026-06-17), OilPrice.com reported, with July's record volumes arriving despite that lapsed exemption.5,6
Saudi Arabia is trying to compete. The kingdom cut official selling prices for Asian buyers and OPEC+ agreed to raise production, contributing to Brent's retreat from April highs, ABP Live reported. But cheaper Saudi barrels have not displaced Russian volumes. Venezuela held fourth place among India's crude suppliers in July at 342,819 bpd, Kpler data show, a distant fourth.3,4
Goldman Sachs, in a note released on June 15 (2026-06-15), cut its Brent price forecasts and put ICE Brent at $80, citing expectations that Persian Gulf exports will recover faster than previously anticipated. The bank projected a global oil surplus of 3.2 million bpd in 2027 but said risks remain two-sided.2
Before U.S. sanctions tightened in 2018, Iran accounted for roughly 10 to 11.5% of India's crude imports, and that supply has not returned. The routes serving Gulf producers remain the variable that drives India's sourcing decisions. How durably the current truce at Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb holds, and whether either waterway resumes reliable transit, will dictate how much room Indian buyers have to diversify away from Russia's 55.5% share.2,6