OPEC+ Freezes Output Through Mid-2026 as Cheap Oil and Venezuelan Wild Card Weigh on Alliance

OPEC+ abandoned its output restoration programme through at least June 2026, locking in a production ceiling of 39.725 million barrels per day after Brent crude fell to $60.77 and the prospect of US-managed Venezuelan oil added a new supply threat. The eight-country core group—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman—confirmed the freeze in February, extending a pause that began in late 2025 when the alliance had already suspended planned February and March increases. The decision scraps what had been a methodical unwind: monthly additions of 137,000 barrels per day that began in October 2025, with December marking the third step before the process was halted. The group still carries combined voluntary cuts of roughly 3.66 million barrels per day, built up through two rounds: 1.65 million barrels per day in April 2023 and a further 2.2 million in November 2023. Despite those curbs, the market has struggled to absorb supply, with WTI at $57.03 at the time of the freeze announcement. Compliance from four chronic overproducers has made the headline cut numbers largely theoretical. Iraq, the UAE, Kazakhstan and Oman submitted new compensation schedules to cover excess production accumulated since January 2024. Their combined makeup cuts will reach 829,000 barrels per day by June—more than three times the 267,000 barrels per day cut in December 2025. Kazakhstan carries the heaviest burden. Its compensation volumes rise to 669,000 barrels per day by June, up from 131,000 in December, reflecting persistent overproduction tied to Tengiz expansion. Iraq holds its makeup cuts at 100,000 barrels per day through midyear. The UAE ramps from 10,000 barrels per day in January to around 55,000 by June, while Oman averages roughly 5,700 barrels per day across the period. The alliance cited low inventories and "healthy fundamentals" as part of its reasoning, while reserving the right to pause or reverse any future increases. That language leaves the door open for deeper cuts if prices deteriorate further. Venezuela complicates the calculus. The arrest of President Nicolás Maduro by US authorities on narco-terrorism charges, followed by Donald Trump's announcement that major American oil companies would invest in rebuilding Venezuelan infrastructure, raised the prospect of significant barrels returning to market. Trump separately announced plans to sell 30 to 50 million barrels of sanctioned Venezuelan crude worth around $2 billion—a direct injection of supply into a market OPEC+ is already struggling to balance. The alliance holds scheduled consultations on March 1 and April 5 to review compliance and market conditions. Whether Kazakhstan's overproduction can actually be wound back—given the technical and contractual constraints at Tengiz—remains the key variable. If compensation cuts prove as unreliable as the originals, the effective OPEC+ ceiling is softer than the headline figure suggests.