NREL Study Finds US Tidal Resources Could Cover 57% of National Power Demand
An NREL resource study and record Australian renewable additions show how differently the clean energy transition is advancing across two coal-legacy economies.
An Alaska-based tidal energy company began testing small, modular turbines in Cape Cod's strong tidal currents as a study from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory found US tidal resources could cover 57% of national electricity demand, according to reporting published Saturday (2026-08-02). The pilot, off the Massachusetts coast, is designed to assess commercial-scale performance in some of the country's most energetic coastal waters.4
Tidal energy's persistent appeal is predictability. Unlike solar and wind, tidal flows track astronomical cycles rather than weather systems, making output foreseeable weeks in advance. But high development costs and scarce commercial deployment have kept the technology marginal in US power markets, and the NREL figure represents resource potential, not an installed capacity forecast.4
Australia presents a sharper contrast in deployment pace. New renewable capacity additions reached 5.9 GW in 2025, a 28.3% year-on-year increase, and the country has now surpassed 2 GWh of battery storage per million people, according to data reported in late July (2026-07-26).3
Rystad Energy senior analyst David Dixon was unambiguous in his assessment. "We have never seen anything of this magnitude before," he said. Dixon also noted that Australia's current ranking of third globally for battery storage per capita will not hold — the trajectory implies it will rise. "Australia won't stay at number three, but it has been going gangbusters," he said.3
South Australia's day-ahead power spot cleared at A$54.27 per MWh on Sunday (2026-08-02). Wallumbilla gas, Australia's eastern market benchmark, sat at A$11.70 per gigajoule on the same date. Both markets still reflect a grid where coal plant sets marginal prices during low-renewable periods. But the pace of renewable additions is compressing midday prices more frequently, and battery storage is beginning to reshape the dispatch curve in ways that were less visible two years ago.3
Australia has long been heavily reliant on coal, and the government's stated aim is a more diverse mix that supports longer-term energy self-sufficiency. Translating that ambition into durable outcomes requires sustained permitting rates and grid investment, not just record installation numbers. Australia's climate minister Chris Bowen took the helm of UN interim climate negotiations in Bonn in June (2026-06-08), putting the domestic transition record under external scrutiny from other signatories.3,2
A complication for Australia's supply chain emerged through US trade policy. The Trump administration's use of forced-labor tariff mechanisms drew objections from Australian trade partners in June (2026-06-04), who noted the initiation notice identified no Australia-specific basis for the action. Equipment supply chains for solar and battery installation can be sensitive to tariff uncertainty, though the direct effect on Australian procurement has not been quantified in the available reporting.1
For the United States, the Cape Cod pilot is a much earlier-stage proposition. The 57% resource coverage figure from the NREL study establishes where physical potential exists; it says nothing about when tidal power becomes cost-competitive with solar, wind, or offshore gas. The distance between a resource assessment and a functioning project pipeline is measured in financing rounds, regulatory approvals and years of engineering — none of which the study addresses.4
The signal to watch for Australia in the second half of 2026 is curtailment. As installations outpace grid expansion, renewable output that cannot be absorbed becomes a drag on the investment case for new capacity. Dixon's confidence in Australia's build-out momentum is real; whether grid infrastructure keeps pace with generation additions is the constraint that the installation records alone cannot answer.3