OPEC+ Signals September Exit From Production Hikes With Surplus Risk Growing
Rystad Energy projects a 188,000 bpd September increase as the final hike in the current series, with a potential 5 million bpd glut looming if Hormuz export flows normalize.
OPEC+ is expected to approve another 188,000 barrels per day production increase when its members next convene, according to Rystad Energy analyst Jorge Leon, with September's addition likely marking the end of the current rollout phase that has run through much of 2026. ICE Brent crude front-month closed at $91.04 per barrel on Friday (2026-07-31), holding elevated despite months of steady incremental supply additions from the group.7
Post-September, the arithmetic changes. Rystad Energy estimates that a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, combined with returning OPEC barrels and sustained high output from the United States, Brazil, and Venezuela, could push the global market into a surplus of around 5 million barrels per day, according to a June (2026-06-11) analysis.3
The path to that surplus runs through logistics as much as quotas. Gulf producers struggled to lift export volumes during the near-paralysis of Hormuz amid the Middle East conflict, with a brief upswing in shipping traffic following a US-Iran memorandum of understanding failing to hold. Saudi Arabia adapted by diverting more than 60% of its exports through the Red Sea, which allowed Riyadh to benefit from elevated prices during the conflict period. That flexibility may now work against the kingdom as flows rebalance.7,3,4
Russia presents a separate supply problem. Rystad's Leon noted in a June (2026-06-08) analysis that Russia's production quota was set to rise to around 9.82 million barrels per day, yet the country was producing only approximately 9.2 million bpd as of May 2026, partly because of intensifying Ukrainian drone strikes on its oil infrastructure. Kpler data from early July (2026-07-05) showed Russia exporting record crude volumes, suggesting some of that output gap has since narrowed, though the extent of infrastructure damage introduces uncertainty about how durable that recovery proves.2,6
Adding to the prospective supply volume, Kpler estimated in early July (2026-07-05) that approximately 67 million barrels of Iranian oil became eligible for export under a US sanctions waiver. Those barrels represent a material increment on top of the OPEC+ quota unwinding already underway.6
OPEC+ is on track to fully unwind, on paper, the 1.65 million bpd of voluntary cuts agreed in 2023 by September 2026, according to Rystad. But the paper figure and the physical output are increasingly misaligned. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo noted that many member countries cannot reach their official targets due to a decline in production capacity, making quota increases a progressively weaker guide to actual supply volumes.3,7
That gap between quota and production gives OPEC+ some insulation from its own paper commitments. Leon said on Saturday (2026-08-01) that he does not see group cohesion at immediate risk, but warned that managing the surplus which could emerge as export flows normalize is the central challenge ahead. Saudi Arabia met Russia at the St Petersburg International Economic Forum on Thursday (2026-06-04), where Saudi energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman called for stabilization in the energy sector — both producers signaling awareness of what a disorderly supply return could cost them.7,5,1
Revenue pressure complicates restraint. Rystad's June (2026-06-11) analysis found that cash-strapped OPEC members would be inclined to compete aggressively for market share once Hormuz fully reopens, pushing prices lower in ways Riyadh would struggle to counteract through persuasion alone. Saudi Arabia's own wartime export diversification could undermine its standing with producers who made fewer adjustments during the conflict.3,4
The harder test comes in the quota negotiations that DNB Carnegie analysts said would begin next year, after the September increase Rystad has flagged as the likely last in the current series. Writing new production baselines after years of shifting voluntary cuts and widening output gaps is politically fraught inside a group with widely divergent fiscal breakeven prices. If ICE Brent front-month drifts materially below current levels before a new framework is agreed, the pressure on individual members to chase volume over discipline will sharpen considerably.7