OPEC+ Set for Another 188,000 bpd Hike as Capacity Gaps Erode the Value of Quota Moves
Rystad Energy expects September's increase will be the last in the current series, with new quota negotiations looming and many members unable to hit existing targets.
Analysts at Rystad Energy expect OPEC+ to approve another 188,000 barrel-per-day output increase for September, following several months of identical hikes — but Jorge Leon, the firm's analyst, said that increase is likely to be the last in the current series before the group faces what DNB Carnegie analysts described as potentially difficult talks over new production quotas starting next year.6
The sequence of hikes has a narrower practical effect than the headline figures suggest. Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS, said many OPEC+ members cannot produce as much oil as their official targets allow due to a decline in production capacity, making the target increases less meaningful in real supply terms. ICE Brent crude front-month settled at $91.04 per barrel as of Friday (2026-08-01)'s close, with WTI at $84.67 per barrel — prices that reflect a market weighing restored Gulf flows against the structural gap between quotas and deliverable barrels.6
That gap has widened considerably since the Strait of Hormuz disruptions that followed the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran. OPEC figures show the group's actual production averaged 33.19 million barrels per day in April, down from 42.77 million in February — a collapse driven by export cuts among Gulf members. The strait, through which nearly 20 million barrels per day passed in 2025 according to the IEA, became the binding constraint on supply regardless of what quotas said.4
Iraq bore the sharpest operational hit. Its production dropped from over 4 million barrels per day to less than 2 million during the Hormuz shutdown, according to reporting cited at oilprice.com. Russia and Kazakhstan, whose exports move overland or through different corridors, were less directly exposed to the strait but still produced below quota, according to the same reporting.5
The Gulf countries have struggled to increase exports even after a partial resumption in shipping traffic following a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, Rystad's Leon noted. Flows through Hormuz have not returned to pre-war norms, keeping a wedge between announced quota increases and barrels that actually reach buyers.6
The UAE sits outside this framework entirely. On May 1 (2026-05-01), Abu Dhabi ended almost 60 years of OPEC membership after the UAE announced its departure on April 28 (2026-04-28), stripping the cartel of its third-largest producer. ADNOC's stated maximum sustainable production capacity stands at 4.85 million barrels per day, according to the Middle East Institute. Its quota in the final weeks of membership had been just under 3.5 million barrels per day, leaving more than 1.35 million barrels per day of capacity unused — a utilization rate of roughly 66% in 2025, compared with 77% for Saudi Arabia and 84% for Kuwait.2,3
Free of those constraints, the UAE moved quickly. Kpler data cited by Reuters showed UAE crude exports in June averaging 3.7 million barrels per day, a record. Vortexa calculated the figure even higher, at up to 4 million barrels daily for the same month. The rise reflected a resumption of flows through Hormuz and the UAE's ability to ramp without coordinating with Riyadh or Moscow.5
OPEC+ approved its fourth consecutive quarterly output increase on June 7 (2026-06-07), with the seven-member group — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman — adding 188,000 barrels per day to July targets. That decision came even as actual production remained far below paper quotas, a dynamic analysts said was partly about signalling that higher Gulf output was possible when logistics allowed, while non-Gulf producers like Russia and Kazakhstan captured the volume share in the interim.4,5
Leon warned that cohesion within the group is not under immediate threat but could face pressure once the group turns to setting new baseline quotas, a process DNB Carnegie analysts said would begin following the expected September hike. The UAE's departure has already removed one chronic source of friction over allocation ceilings, but it has also taken away a producer that had routinely punched below its capacity weight — in effect subsidizing the quotas of others.6,2
Kazakhstan is a parallel complication. Its production between January and March (2026) came in at 80.2% of the prior year's level, with exports at 78.5% year-on-year, Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov said. But Kazakhstan's longer-term trajectory points upward: OPEC's Annual Statistical Bulletin showed its crude output rose by 239,000 barrels per day in 2025 to 1.78 million barrels per day, and Astana has made clear it views capacity expansion as a national priority regardless of group discipline.1
The next concrete signal is whether Hormuz shipping volumes sustain their recovery through August. If Gulf exports lag again despite another quota increase, the gap between OPEC+ target announcements and actual supply will widen further — and the September meeting's quota discussions will open with several members already producing well short of their current allowances, before any new baseline is set.6,4