Henry Hub Holds at $2.75 as Hormuz Closure Widens Gap with Asian and European Gas
The EIA has raised its Henry Hub price forecast for 2026-27 as a Hormuz-driven premium drives Asian and European gas far above the U.S. benchmark.
NYMEX Henry Hub front-month closed at $2.75 per million British thermal units on Friday (2026-07-31), less than one-eighth the price of Asian spot LNG, with JKM last quoted at $21.45/MMBtu. The spread has widened since February 28, when the Strait of Hormuz closed, cutting off roughly 20% of global LNG supply. Asian and European benchmarks surged to their highest since the 2022-23 gas crisis. Henry Hub absorbed comparatively little of the shock.6,3
The EIA raised its Henry Hub spot price projection for both 2026 and 2027 in its July short-term energy outlook, Rigzone reported on July 15 (2026-07-15). The agency had already documented the U.S.-international divergence in late April (2026-04-28), noting that TTF futures had risen to $14.80/MMBtu following the Hormuz closure while Henry Hub remained anchored by domestic supply. ICE Endex TTF front-month has since climbed to €59.05/MWh, well above those April readings.7,6
But the near-term outlook for Henry Hub is not uniformly bullish. EBW Analytics Group, in a report sent to Rigzone on July 15 (2026-07-15), said milder weather was suppressing cooling demand and undermining near-term price support. That miss in heat demand is, for now, keeping the prompt contract below $3.7
The geopolitical disruption has been severe by historical standards. Global LNG Hub data from May (2026-05-19) showed Hormuz accounted for more than 25% of Asian LNG supply, with JKM volatility reaching 300% in March, the third-highest monthly average on record. Asian and European gas prices surged to their highest since the 2022-23 gas crisis in that same month.3
Domestic production growth has absorbed much of the pressure. EIA data showed Lower 48 marketed gas output averaged 117.2 Bcf/d in the first quarter of 2026, up 4% from the same period in 2025. The agency projects full-year 2026 production growth of 3%, with the Permian region expected to produce 29.2 Bcf/d, 6% above year-ago levels. The Haynesville, a gas-focused basin, is forecast to add 6% in 2026 and 8% in 2027.1
Those volumes have kept Henry Hub in check. The front-month settled the week of May 11 (2026-05-11) at $2.67/MMBtu even with Qatar's gas production still partially offline, 247 Wall Street noted — showing how domestic supply was absorbing the Hormuz disruption with limited price pass-through. The contract has since edged up to $2.75, a modest move given the scale of the global supply shock.2
There was a brief test of higher ground in early May. NYMEX front-month reached $2.853/MMBtu on Monday (2026-05-04), up 2.6% on the session, as LNG export demand and geopolitical risk briefly converged, Investing.com reported. It failed to hold, and the subsequent retreat suggests the market has not committed to pricing sustained supply tightness into the forward curve.4
Wood Mackenzie offered a longer-dated structural warning. In a July 8 (2026-07-08) analysis, the consultancy said the decade of near-zero marginal cost supply growth that has kept Henry Hub cheap is ending. The share of low-cost U.S. gas supply is expected to fall below 20% over the next ten years, the firm said. "With supply less responsive to price signals than it once was, prices will need to go higher and stay higher to bring new molecules to market," Wood Mackenzie analyst Wang said.5
Henry Hub's connection to international prices runs through the Atlantic LNG export arb. When JKM and ICE Endex TTF front-month trade this far above the U.S. benchmark, American LNG export terminals draw additional cargoes into the global market, gradually tightening domestic supply. The pace of that tightening depends on how long Hormuz stays closed and whether Permian and Haynesville production growth can replace the volumes pulled offshore before injection season ends.5,1,3