Mirae Sees Upside Risk as RBOB Gasoline Flatlines Despite Tight US Crude Stocks
US refiners running at 97 per cent utilization are keeping gasoline supply elevated even as crude inventories sit 6.4 per cent below seasonal norms.
NYMEX RBOB gasoline front-month settled at $3.11 a gallon at the Friday (2026-07-31) close, little changed despite crude stocks sitting well below seasonal averages. Mirae's Mohammed Imran argues the retreat in crude prices does not mark a directional shift, and that the risk in oil markets remains weighted to the upside, according to analysis published on July 31 (2026-07-31).6
The explanation for gasoline's flat performance lies in refinery throughput. US refiners operated at 97 per cent utilization in the week to July 20 (2026-07-20), pushing combined crude and product exports to 11 million barrels, Mirae data showed. At that pace, abundant product output offsets the tightness in crude feedstocks, leaving RBOB without a catalyst for a sustained move.6
The crude picture itself is tighter. US crude inventories as of July 24 (2026-07-24) were 6.4 per cent below their seasonal five-year average, Mirae data showed. That deficit had been building: the EIA reported a crude draw of 1.7 million barrels in data published around July 17 (2026-07-17), a reduction larger than analysts had forecast.6,5
That draw coincided with a sharp crude rally. September NYMEX WTI crude posted a gain of more than 11 per cent in its strongest weekly advance in months, climbing from around $72.50 to above $80 before easing into the Thursday (2026-07-16) close, OilPrice.com reported. ICE Brent crude front-month stood at $91.04 a barrel and NYMEX WTI crude front-month at $84.67 a barrel at Friday's (2026-07-31) settlement.5
Imran's position is that the subsequent pullback is tactical. Global crude inventories, including oil on water, were drawn down by 250 million barrels over March and April 2026 alone — equivalent to 4 million barrels a day — according to Business Standard analysis published on June 3 (2026-06-03). That pace of destocking provides the floor underpinning his bullish directional view.4,6
Demand readings have not pushed against that view. Energy Aspects analysts, cited in a JP Morgan research note published on June 2 (2026-06-02) via Rigzone, said US gasoline demand showed no clear sign of weakness, with trucking activity in the United States running close to seasonal norms. Jet demand outside the Middle East and China had "held up well," the analysts said, drawing on proprietary trucking indices and Kayrros high-frequency data.1
On June 11 (2026-06-11), ING analysts warned that oil and gas prices were underpricing the risk of a prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption, invezz.com reported. Around 240 tankers were idling outside the waterway at that time, against pre-war transit volumes of approximately 130 to 140 vessels per day, according to Business Standard analysis from June 3 (2026-06-03).3,4
Commerzbank's Norman Liebke offered a more measured read on June 8 (2026-06-08): crude oil inventories were lasting longer than expected, even as stocks of some refined products had already fallen significantly, he said in analysis cited by invezz.com. That dynamic, Liebke argued, had been amplifying fears of demand destruction beyond what the underlying consumption data supported.2
The gasoline inventory balance has not tightened enough to move RBOB off $3.11. How quickly that changes rests on whether US refinery run rates ease from their current near-maximum level, allowing crude-side tightness to pull through to the gasoline front-month rather than staying contained at the feedstock level.6