French Front-Week Power Rises Toward 18-Month High as Heat Curbs EDF Output
The French front-week contract hit EUR 120.50/MWh at the close on 31 July 2026, heading for its highest settlement since February 2025.
France's front-week power contract closed at EUR 120.50/MWh on 31 July 2026, up EUR 6.35 on the session, Montel reported. That put it on course for the highest front-week settlement since February 2025, with the pricing reflecting back-to-back heat episodes that have stripped output from EDF's nuclear fleet across the summer.6
The front-week price sits 16% above the expected day-ahead baseload average of EUR 103.91/MWh for the week of 27 July 2026, exchange data showed. French day-ahead power for 1 August 2026 delivery cleared at EUR 123.57/MWh. The spot curve is not pointing to any easing as the peak demand week begins.6
Two forces have tightened the French power balance over recent weeks. Summer heat has forced EDF to throttle or shut reactors to comply with river temperature limits, removing output precisely when air-conditioning demand is running high. Exports to neighbouring grids have stayed elevated, putting additional pressure on domestic supply.6,5
On 13 July 2026, temperatures in France forced EDF to stop three of the country's 57 reactors outright and reduce production at others, Politico reported. An earlier heatwave prompted EDF to shut two additional reactors as a precautionary environmental measure when river temperatures climbed toward regulatory limits. The curtailments have not arrived in a single event but in successive waves through the summer.5,4
The pattern has precedent from earlier in the season. Day-ahead power for 16 June 2026 delivery settled at EUR 136.12/MWh, a 16-month high at that point, Montel reported. Alexis Gleron, analyst at Augmented Energy, attributed that spike principally to "increased use of air-conditioning" as temperatures ran above seasonal norms across France. The August week is now pricing close to those June peaks.2
The pressure has spread across the regional grid. German power day-ahead settled at EUR 135.10/MWh for 1 August 2026 delivery, with Germany drawing on interconnector flows from a constrained French grid. ICE Endex TTF front-month stood at EUR 59.05/MWh in early trading on 1 August 2026, up 1.52% on the session, as higher northwest European power prices drew on gas-to-power generation across the regional merit order.6
EDF's nuclear fleet generated 373 TWh in the group's most recent annual figures, making it the central supply variable in French power pricing. When heat curtailments remove output without much notice, gas plant absorbs the gap — feeding directly back into European gas prices through the merit order.3
In May 2026, EDF announced that EDF OA, its division managing renewable assets under feed-in tariff contracts, would curtail 842 MW of subsidised solar and onshore wind output during negative price periods from 25 May 2026, Montel reported. That policy targets surplus hours and limits cost exposure on low-demand days. It has no effect during a heat-driven supply squeeze.1
EDF's 2027 guidance assumes French nuclear output of 350–370 TWh annually, including the Flamanville 3 reactor, and targets a net financial debt-to-EBITDA ratio at or below 2.5 times. A sustained run of heat-related curtailments dragging annual output below that band puts both figures under pressure. EDF has not publicly revised either target.3
Reactor availability data from EDF before trading resumes on 3 August 2026 is the next concrete signal the market will have to work with. The front-week contract moved EUR 6.35 in a single session on 31 July 2026. Any further shutdowns over the intervening weekend would reach the market with little time to adjust when the open occurs.6