Algeria's Medgaz Delivers 0.94 bcm to Europe With Production Base Under Pressure
Strong Algerian pipeline flows mask an upstream deficit that European gas buyers have not yet priced into forward contracts.
Algeria delivered 0.94 billion cubic metres of natural gas to European markets in the most recent reporting period, routed predominantly through the Medgaz pipeline. ICE Endex TTF front-month printed €58.16/MWh on Thursday (2026-07-31), suggesting buyers see adequate near-term supply rather than any deterioration in North African flow.
Algeria is Africa's largest gas producer, with natural gas accounting for roughly 49% of the country's total hydrocarbon output, according to a June 2026 OilPrice.com analysis. Total recoverable gas resources are estimated at between 2.5 and 3.4 trillion cubic metres, alongside around 10.5 billion barrels of oil. That reserve range is wide enough to matter, reflecting genuine uncertainty about Algeria's underground position. The same analysis was direct: Algeria's export position is strong, but its production base is not.4
Those two conditions are moving in opposite directions. Europe's demand for Algerian gas has risen as Russian pipeline deliveries contracted, making the monthly Medgaz flow figure a number that southern European grid operators and portfolio managers track carefully. But the ability to sustain and grow wellhead output is what does not appear in delivery tallies, and long-term buyers evaluating contract commitments need to weigh it. Commercial terms attract interest only when the underlying volumes are deliverable.4
Russia has been redirecting available gas east. Gazprom's annual report showed deliveries to Uzbekistan rose 15% in 2025 to 6.48 bcm, up from 5.64 bcm in 2024, adding nearly 840 million cubic metres year-on-year. Combined exports to Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan climbed 22.2% over the same period, while deliveries to Georgia rose 40.4%. A supply contract provides for annual Uzbek deliveries of up to 7.7 bcm, with Russian officials confirming in October 2025 that the agreement remained on track.5
The infrastructure numbers behind the Central Asian expansion are large. Upgrades are designed to raise Uzbekistan's import capacity from 9 million cubic metres per day to 32 million cubic metres per day. That capacity does not flow back toward Europe.5
China absorbs the bulk of Russia's available surplus. Gazprom's Power of Siberia exports reached 38.8 bcm in 2025, exceeding the pipeline's planned 38 bcm annual capacity, according to May 2026 reporting. Russia and China agreed in September 2025 to raise volumes to 44 bcm per year. The countries have also agreed to supply up to 12 bcm annually via a pipeline from Sakhalin Island. The prospective Power of Siberia 2, a 2,600-kilometre route through Mongolia designed to carry 50 bcm per year from Russia's Arctic Yamal fields, remained in early-stage work under China's 15th five-year plan released in March, with commercial terms and a construction timetable still unresolved as of May 2026.3,1,2
Yet none of that Russian volume points back toward Europe. The pressure on European buyers runs through the southern corridor, where Algeria's ability to sustain Medgaz flows is the supply variable with the shortest horizon. JKM Asian LNG spot settled near $21.32 per MMBtu on Wednesday (2026-07-29), the benchmark against which any alternative spot LNG import is priced.
Still, the flat TTF print on Thursday (2026-07-31) reflects current flow adequacy rather than medium-term confidence. Contrarian supply signals in TTF and German baseload front-month leaned modestly bullish even as the broader market consensus in natural gas sat on the bearish side. If Algerian production data in coming months confirm the upstream strain that OilPrice.com identified in June 2026, the repricing will show up in Medgaz flow numbers before it registers in TTF's forward curve.4