Asia-Pacific Coal Generation Falls 1.2% as Solar Overtakes Gas Across the Region
Data covering 2025 show the region's outsized share of global coal power means even modest declines there reshape the world total.
Coal generation across Asia Pacific fell 1.2% in 2025, according to the Energy Institute's Statistical Review published on Sunday (2026-07-26), and the significance of that number lies almost entirely in geography. The region's two dominant coal-power producers generate nearly 69% of the world's coal-fired electricity. Their combined output fell 3.0% to 1,464 terawatt-hours. At that concentration, a single-digit percentage move in Asia reshapes the global aggregate in ways that European retirements simply cannot: the European Union's coal generation now represents just 2.6% of global output.6
The decline arrived in an expanding demand market. Asia Pacific's total electricity consumption grew 3% in 2025, per data cited by Asian Power on Wednesday (2026-07-01), and low-carbon sources met all of that incremental growth. Renewables became the largest source of global energy supply growth for the year. Coal's share contracting inside rising demand is a different dynamic from coal declining in a flat-demand environment.5
Solar's advance across the continent accelerated faster than many forecasters anticipated. Carbon Brief reported on Friday (2026-06-12) that solar had overtaken gas to become Asia's third-largest electricity source, the first time that threshold had been crossed. Capacity additions drove that displacement, outpacing both demand growth and gas generation expansion.4
Coal is not departing quietly. It still accounts for approximately 35% of global electricity supply, and more than 2,000 gigawatts of coal capacity remains operational worldwide, according to globalelectricity.org data published on Wednesday (2026-05-20). Retirement timelines in developed markets carry no relevance for the coal capacity built across South and Southeast Asia over the past decade. Those plants have economic lives measured in decades.1
The United States moved in the opposite direction in 2025. Coal-fired electricity generation there jumped 13.1% to 804 terawatt-hours and domestic coal production rose 4.4%, according to the same Energy Institute data from Sunday (2026-07-26). U.S. coal consumption increased 10.4% to 8.7 exajoules, though that level remains approximately 62% below the 2005 peak. The American rebound complicates any simple narrative about global coal in retreat. Regional trajectories have split sharply.6
Europe's exit continued at pace. The EU's coal generation fell 3.6% and now accounts for just 2.6% of global output, per the same Sunday (2026-07-26) data, while the continent as a whole posted a 3.4% decrease. At 2.6% of global coal power, EU demand signals carry diminishing weight in setting international coal prices. That price-setting influence now sits in Asia.6
The IEA's long-run projections, cited in an Economist analysis published on Sunday (2026-05-17), placed Asia's fossil-fuel CO2 output at 16.5 gigatonnes in 2020, representing 49% of the global total, up from six gigatonnes and roughly a quarter of global emissions in 1990. Under stated government policies, the IEA projects that figure will grow approximately 9% by 2030 before retreating to around 95% of its current level by 2050. That path assumes announced policies are fully implemented. Coal capacity still expanding in parts of Asia suggests the gap between stated policy and actual deployment has not closed.2
Bloomberg NEF, as reported on Sunday (2026-05-31), projects solar will become the world's largest energy source by 2032. If realized, Asia Pacific's generation mix could look substantially different within six years. Solar overtaking gas was the more conservative milestone; surpassing coal across a region that still generates nearly 70% of the world's coal-fired power is a different order of magnitude.3
Newcastle physical coal held at $119.65 per tonne on Wednesday (2026-07-29). At that price, regional utilities have limited economic incentive to switch away from coal unless solar or gas undercut them on marginal generation cost. Carbon Brief's Friday (2026-06-12) analysis shows solar has already overtaken gas across Asian markets. Whether the 2025 Asia-Pacific generation decline reflects durable fuel-switching or a temporary dip in industrial load that recovers as regional economies strengthen will set the direction for Newcastle prices and Asian LNG spot — JKM last quoted at $21.32 per MMBtu on Wednesday (2026-07-29).6,4,1