One Hormuz Transit Breaks an 18-Day Freeze, but Analysts Expect the Strait to Close Again
Kpler confirmed a single LNG crossing on Wednesday, yet an analyst warned that escalating US-Iran strikes make further near-term transits unlikely.
An LNG tanker made the first Strait of Hormuz crossing since July 11 (2026-07-11), Kpler ship-tracking data showed on Wednesday (2026-07-29), but an analyst cautioned that the resumption was unlikely to hold: further near-term crossings were improbable given the escalation in US-Iran military activity.5
That analyst warning carries more weight than the crossing itself. The strait has produced a series of apparent breakthroughs since its effective closure in late February, each followed by renewed hostilities or prolonged silence. Three LNG tankers crossed over the weekend of May 24-25 (2026-05-24/25), bringing total outbound crossings to seven. By Tuesday (2026-05-26), the US military had carried out strikes near the waterway and Brent crude futures climbed about 4%, Reuters reported, as deal expectations collapsed.1,2
ICE Brent crude front-month stood at $90.15 a barrel as of Wednesday (2026-07-29). That compares with $99.58 a barrel — the May 26 (2026-05-26) settlement after US military strikes near the strait reversed a 7% decline from the previous session.2
The June (2026-06) episode shows how markets have repeatedly mispriced diplomatic headlines on this waterway. When President Trump announced a preliminary agreement with Iran for a Hormuz reopening on June 15 (2026-06-15) and Iran confirmed the deal, European gas prices shed 5.8% on the day, according to Bloomberg. But a force majeure was still active on QatarEnergy's Ras Laffan hub, and a strike at an Australian LNG facility with annual production capacity exceeding 9 million tons was simultaneously removing supply. The peace deal faded. The supply constraints did not.3
LNG tanker Disha, carrying Qatari cargo, crossed Hormuz on June 14 (2026-06-14), one day before the Trump announcement. Kpler and LSEG data showed the vessel had loaded at Ras Laffan on March 1-2 (2026-03-01/02) and had been sitting west of the strait for more than three months. One vessel clearing a multi-month backlog is not evidence of a functioning transit corridor.4
Asian buyers have priced in the disruption. JKM, the Asian LNG benchmark, was at $21.32 per MMBtu on Wednesday (2026-07-29), reflecting persistent tightness even as Hormuz access has fluctuated between brief openings and extended closures. ICE Endex TTF front-month was at €58.16 per MWh on Thursday (2026-07-31), holding despite brief bouts of European gas selling that each crossing announcement has triggered. Neither market is treating a single transit as a supply resolution.
The speed of the reversal in late May (2026-05) illustrated how quickly Hormuz pricing can swing. Brent lost 7% on Monday (2026-05-25) as US-Iran deal optimism built, closed at its lowest since April 20 (2026-04-20), then recovered to $99.58 on Tuesday (2026-05-26) after overnight US strikes near the waterway, Reuters reported. The move in both directions exceeded what any actual change in physical flow warranted.2
What would falsify the cautious analyst read is sustained vessel traffic: multiple laden LNG tankers completing Hormuz transits across a ten-day period without fresh military action interrupting the sequence. Kpler vessel-tracking data through early August (2026-08) will show whether Wednesday's (2026-07-29) crossing was the start of a genuine thaw or another isolated transit in a strait that has been governed, since late February, by the tempo of US-Iran hostilities rather than by shipping economics.5