Terna Reports Italy Data Centre Grid Queue Hits 94 GW as Permitting Reform Advances
A 34% surge in connection requests in six months is testing whether Italy's grid investment and fast-track permitting plans can keep pace with AI-driven demand.
Italian data centre connection requests surged 34% to 94 GW in June from 70 GW in December, TSO Terna said late on Wednesday (2026-07-29), a pace that puts the queue well ahead of what the network can absorb under current permitting timelines. Renewables and storage project queues are also at record levels alongside the data centre backlog.6
Italian power day-ahead prices settled at €182.04/MWh on Thursday (2026-07-30), among the highest in Europe, reflecting both the structural tightness of the Italian grid and the heat-season premium baked into near-term contracts. The queue figure does not translate directly into near-term load — most of these projects are years from energisation — but it signals the volume of capital chasing Italian grid capacity and the strain that could follow.6
Terna is spending €18bn between 2024 and 2028 on network upgrades, according to The Economist. That is a substantial programme for a mid-sized European TSO, yet the queue has grown by 24 GW in six months alone. Even if a fraction of those 94 GW of requests ultimately reach financial close and construction, the grid investment envelope looks tight.3
The energy ministry's fast-track permitting proposal, unveiled on Wednesday (2026-07-23), is the most plausible relief valve under discussion. Montel reported that Italy could cut grid connection waiting times from the current three years or more to around 10 months if the plan is enacted in full. That shift, if delivered, changes the economics of Italian data centre development materially — shorter lead times reduce financing cost and execution risk for developers.5
But the gap between a ministry announcement and a functioning faster permitting regime is large. Italian infrastructure projects have a long history of slipping past promised timelines. Terna's own balancing data system threw up problems as recently as March and May (2026-05-15), when traders told Montel that large-scale revisions to provisional quarter-hourly imbalance price data were distorting intraday market signals, with revised prices differing by as much as 50% from provisional figures. An operator managing growing renewables and storage queues alongside data centre requests while its settlement systems are under strain is not one that inspires confidence in accelerated delivery.1
The renewables and storage queues are also at record levels alongside the data centre requests, Terna said. Data centres want firm, round-the-clock power; most of the Italian renewable pipeline is variable. The gap between what developers want to connect and what the system can reliably dispatch creates a structural PPA opportunity, and experts told Montel the Italian PPA market is set to accelerate sharply in 2026, with a 1.7 GW project pipeline already identified. Projects under construction total 343 MW, with a further 1.6 GW planned and awaiting permitting, according to Pasquale Cavaliere, professor of energy economics at the University of Naples.2
AI-driven demand is the primary driver. The country's data centre sector is entering what Cavaliere described as a more mature phase. That maturity still depends on regulatory delivery. A 10-month permitting clock only starts once the legislation passes and agencies are resourced to implement it. Neither is guaranteed on any specific timeline.5,2
The bullish case for Italian power prices rests on demand growth outpacing both grid capacity additions and renewable buildout. The bearish hedge is that the queue is a wish list, not a load forecast — if permitting bottlenecks persist, a large share of those 94 GW of requests simply lapses or relocates to other European markets with more available capacity. Germany, the Netherlands, and Ireland have all attracted large data centre loads partly because of Italy's historically slow grid process; the fast-track proposal is a direct response to that competitive pressure.5,3
ENTSO-E has separately warned that growing data centre demand across Europe, if not properly managed, could force TSOs to reduce renewable energy penetration — an outcome that would push European grids back toward dispatchable generation and pressure carbon prices. For Italy specifically, that risk is amplified by the combination of a constrained transmission network, day-ahead prices already near €182/MWh, and a queue growing faster than the investment programme it depends on.4,3
The next concrete signal is whether Italy's parliament advances the fast-track permitting legislation and on what timeline. A bill that stalls or is amended to preserve existing three-year review processes would send a clear message to data centre developers: Italy remains on the wish list, not the shortlist.5