Qatar Ships Record 81.5 Mt of LNG in 2025, Displacing Australia at Second Place
IGU data confirm Qatar's market share at 18.7% as ICE Endex TTF falls 3.90%, creating an ambiguous signal for ICE EUA Dec-rolling at €80.57.
Qatar exported 81.5 million tonnes of LNG in 2025, an increase of 4.3 Mt from the prior year that was enough to overtake Australia and become the world's second-largest LNG exporter, the International Gas Union reported on Tuesday (2026-07-29). Qatar's global market share reached 18.7%, according to the IGU World LNG Report 2026, published on Tuesday (2026-07-29).5
Global LNG trade hit a record 437 Mt in 2025, up 25.7 Mt or 6.3% from 2024. Asia absorbed 138.76 Mt, the dominant import region, with China taking 69.8 Mt and Japan 67.4 Mt, the IGU said.5,2 The scale of that Asian absorption is the channel EUA Dec-rolling traders are reading: strong global gas demand clearing record export volumes without diverting large flows toward Europe keeps the underlying demand signal intact for carbon markets.5
ICE EUA Dec held at €80.57 per tonne as of Wednesday (2026-07-30), even as ICE Endex TTF front-month fell 3.90% to €58.16/MWh in the same session. That divergence is the live tension in this trade.5
The United States drove most of the global supply increase. U.S. LNG exports reached 110.74 Mt in 2025, up from 88.42 Mt in 2024, according to IGU data.2 The Energy Institute's 2026 Statistical Review of World Energy puts that rise at 27%, from 4.1 trillion cubic feet in 2024 to 5.2 trillion cubic feet last year, with the U.S. accounting for roughly 93% of global export growth.4 Qatar's 4.3 Mt gain was steady rather than transformative, but enough to displace Australia from second place.5
Australia moved in the opposite direction. LSEG seaborne LNG data compiled by Global LNG Hub show Australian year-to-date shipments in 2025 ran 2.8% below the prior-year pace, widening the performance gap with the U.S. and Qatar as both rivals expanded output.1
The demand argument for EUA rests on Asian import momentum holding. China's 69.8 Mt and Japan's 67.4 Mt purchases kept global spot pricing contained: Tuesday's (2026-07-29) JKM settlement of $21.32/MMBtu suggests Asian buyers absorbed new supply without significant spot dislocation.5 So long as Asia continues pulling at that rate, the Atlantic LNG arbitrage window stays narrow, limiting the volume of U.S. and Qatari cargoes that can be redirected toward European hubs and push ICE Endex TTF lower.5,2
But TTF's 3.90% slide on Wednesday (2026-07-30) cuts against that picture. ICE EUA Dec held its footing despite the move, a result that leaves the short-term direction unresolved. Traders positioning in EUA Dec-rolling are reading two signals pointing in opposite directions.5
The longer supply picture is defined by Qatar's expansion pipeline. North Field East, South and West projects will lift Qatar's production capacity from 77 million tonnes per annum to 142 Mtpa by end of the decade, the IGU said, a near-doubling from a 2025 base that already hit record output.5 The U.S. Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook, published in April (2026-04-16), forecast U.S. LNG exports growing nearly 30% further by 2027, a trajectory the latest IGU trade data confirm remains on track.3,2
Together, the U.S., Qatar and Australia accounted for 62% of global LNG exports in 2025, the IGU said.5 Australia's declining trajectory provides a partial offset to the U.S.-Qatar supply surge, but net global supply growth is running faster than any single producer's contraction.1
EUA traders backing a demand-driven support case are betting that Asian consumption growth outpaces new Atlantic supply, keeping JKM prices firm enough to prevent large-scale LNG rerouting from Asia to Europe. The pace at which Qatar's first-phase North Field cargoes reach market will set the terms of the EUA generation-desk trade through the back half of 2026.5